Weekend Forecast for July 27-29, 2018

By Reagen Sulewski

July 26, 2018

I mean sure, he got hurt, but did he get Jeremy Renner in Tag hurt?

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While there's a couple smaller kicks at the can left, the last weekend of July brings about the end of prime time summer movie season – hope you enjoyed it! At least this one's going out with a bit of a bang – if not in box office, in quality.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout marks the sixth installment of the shockingly long running series of the adaptation of the 1960s spy series, which has served now as Tom Cruise's personal playground. Nearly dead after the third outing and Cruise's couch jump on Oprah, it has risen from those ashes and become one of the best action franchises in recent memory, with an ever increasing frequency. It was six years between II and III, five between III and Ghost Protocol, four between it and Rogue Nation, and now three years before this film, meaning that at this pace, by 2022 there'll just be a camera crew following a 60-year old (!) Tom Cruise around at all times as he films death defying stunts.

Fallout sees Christopher McQuarrie return to the director's chair (the first person to do more than one) for another globe-hopping series of exploits about ... some terrorism plot or another – does it really matter? When it inevitably goes wrong, Cruise and his team (a bit of a greatest hits returning version, with Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames, Alec Baldwin, Rebecca Ferguson, Michelle Monaghan) have to go on the run to clear their names and save the world, all while being chased by CIA super-assassin Henry Cavill (he of the bicep-powered beard) under the auspices of director Angela Bassett.

From here, it's the typical Mission: Impossible sequences of fights, chases and real, live-action stunts that look like they might actually kill Tom Cruise. This time around it's a helicopter spiral and a jump from building to building that actually broke his leg and halted production for some time (but remains in the film!). In some ways it's the same old same old, but in others it's a remarkable execution of a simple idea – exciting, practical stunts in exotic settings. Reviews have never been better for the series and an all-out promotion blitz has positioned this film strongly in the later summer. In its latest incarnation, it's never been a opening weekend powerhouse, in one case even pulling a national release slate stunt over Christmas (which mostly worked). There's been a steady climb up in raw numbers and the boost from reviews should be good for a solid improvement to around $60 million.

It's an article of fact that outside of Wonder Woman, the only thing that's really been working well for DC's movie division has been its animated films, while the main DCEU has been a garbage fire tornado. Pulling in one of its more popular animated titles from TV into its film debut, WB and DC will try their hand at making Teen Titans Go! To the Movies a bright spot in their eternal darkness.




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Based on the wildly irreverent and self-aware Teen Titans Go! Series, it's a Wacky with a Capital W pop series that combines the spirit of Animaniacs with super hero cliches, constantly breaking the fourth wall and playing off the insecurities of the B-... C? E-Team superheros of Robin, Starfire, Beast Boy, Cyborg and Raven. This is the kind of show that built a three-episode arc off an '80s sound-alike song from WB's generic music vault, and made it the most epic thing ever.

For their movie debut, the group is tired of being disrespected and feels that with every other superhero getting their own movie, that's exactly what they need to start getting some props from the real Justice League. This plan goes awry when Slade Wilson, aka Deathstroke aka Not Deadpool Why Does Everyone Keep Calling Him That hijacks the team and tricks them into helping him take control of every other superhero. It's basically a PG-rated piss-take on the superhero genre that just happens to work at both the kid and parent levels. (It's at this point that I hesitate to point out there is a demographic that is very much upset with this property, late 20 and early 30 somethings who are fans of the original Teen Titans animated series, the series they think this series replaced. One didn't erase the other guys, so just let people enjoy things).

There aren't a ton of comparison points to this, though the closest two might be the South Park movie and Star Wars: Clone Wars, animated series that made the jump to the big screen. I might also put in a word for The Powerpuff Girls Movie, though that never had the level of popularity this film does (There's also The LEGO Batman Movie, but that feels like shooting for the moon, here). It's a hugely popular showm though, and in heavy rotation on Netflix, giving it a pretty good shot at breaking out. Fairly ecstatic reviews are also going to help here, validating the movie for parents and other olds, so I think we're looking at a solid $14 million weekend.

The Equalizer 2 was a surprise winner last weekend at $36 million, mostly holding serve from its original outing, while Mamma Mia 2 improved somewhat but not quite enough, to $35 million. While I don't think it's going to be as leggy as the first film, I do see Mamma Mia as being able to hold on to a decent amount of that audience and/or capture repeat viewings. I mean, warnings were not heeded last weekend so why would for this one? Give it $22 million here. Equalizer meanwhile should see a steep drop-off as an action sequel to around $18 million.

Hotel Transylvania 3 passed $100 million mid-week following a solid second weekend for what's turning out to maybe be the best of this series so far. It should almost certainly surpass the $160 million of the first movie, though it won't be by a lot. I'd look for $14 million this weekend.

It's a plethora of tentpole films after this, including Ant-Man and the Wasp, which is going to try but fail to hit $200 million domestic, and should grab $9 million this weekend, Incredibles 2, still holding strong as it takes a shot at $600 million ($8 million this frame), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, which should see about $7 million here, and Skyscraper, which is plummeting rapidly and will hang on for $5 million.


Forecast: Weekend of July 27-29, 2018
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Mission: Impossible - Fallout 4,386 New 60.2
2 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again 3,514 +197 22.4
3 The Equalizer 2 3,388 0 17.9
4 Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 3,188 New 14.4
5 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 4,005 -262 13.8
6 Ant-Man and the Wasp 3,013 -765 9.4
7 Incredibles 2 2,616 -548 8.5
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 2,685 -696 7.2
9 Skyscraper 2,773 -1,049 5.3
10 The First Purge 1,400 -931 3.0

     


 
 

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