Weekend Wrap-Up

by Tim Briody

July 1, 2018

They need just a movie about Owen and Blue.

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We're in a pre-holiday, post-blockbuster-that-wasn't-quite weekend, so we have a couple of weird mid-tier releases that do better than expected, but the dinosaurs stay on top despite a big drop.

The top film for the weekend is again Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, earning $60 million (hm) a 59% decline from last weekend (hmmm) and giving it a total of $264.7 million (HMMM) in two weekends.

After coming in with $148 million last weekend ($2 million less than initially estimated), Fallen Kingdom seemed primed for a big decline, and yes, its Friday-to-Friday drop, as reported yesterday by Kim Hollis, was 70% (which does include the Thursday night take). As expected, it did righten the ship a bit over the weekend proper, and thus managed to spin a $17.4 million Friday into $60 million, though I also expect that to be overestimated by a million or two again.

Jurassic World held well considering its then record breaking opening weekend in 2015, dropping 49% to $106.5 million, crossing $400 million in the process. Word-of-mouth wasn't the kindest, though, and thus the diminishing returns kicking in here. While the last one needed just two weekends to get there, $400 million is looking like a landing point for Fallen Kingdom.

The Incredibles 2 continues to roll with $45.5 million in its third weekend (down 43%) and $439.7 million to date. After last weekend it was in fifth place all-time among Pixar movies and now it's solidly in second, and the clock is ticking before it passes Finding Dory ($486.2 million) as their best ever. It should cross that mark by next weekend and then look to break into the top ten all time (the current gatekeeper is Rogue One at $532.1 million), a figure it should get to, as right now I think you're looking at $550 million total domestically.

We get our first opener in third place as Sicario: Day of the Soldado opens with $19 million. The sequel to 2015's Sicario, a movie that opened to $12.1 million in October and finished with $46.8 million, Day of the Soldado is the rare dramatic thriller sequel, with a bit more emphasis on the action in this one. It's an odd call for a sequel, even as it brings back two of the major players from Sicario (Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin), but not the lead (Emily Blunt, whose performance got raves).

$19 million is actually a pretty decent opening, as the box office is actually relatively devoid of "dark, gritty drama" for the audiences who enjoy that genre. I don't really like its chances to have staying power, though, and the reviews weren't good enough (62% Fresh) to indicate holding well after this weekend. I'd look for it to struggle to match the total of the first film.

Uncle Drew is your other opener this weekend, and the Pepsi commercial character turned movie starring NBA players earned $15.5 million, also topping expectations. Starring Kyrie Irving, as well as retired basketballers Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller and Nate Robinson, with Lil Rel Howery, J.B. Smoove, Mike Epps, Tiffany Haddish and Nick Kroll in the "actually actors" department, the comedy delivered to its target audience (though it's unknown how many tickets were sold in Boston as opposed to Cleveland). The comedy did manage better reviews than Sicario (barely).

Uncle Drew reportedly had a budget of under $20 million, and this is a good start (global box office is unknown, but would be ironic as Irving is a flat earther), but I don't expect any legs, as it's essentially a one note joke commercial. I expect a big decline next weekend even with a holiday weekend.




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Ocean's 8 continues to hold well, down just 30% from last weekend, adding $8 million and giving it $114.7 million after four weekends. Mid week it'll top Ocean's Thirteen and by next weekend it'll beat Ocean's Twelve ($125 million) to be the second best earner in the franchise, and a sequel is probably go.

Tag earns $5.6 million in its third weekend, a 32% decline from last weekend, and it now has $40.8 million to date. It's not been a good year for comedies, and Tag will end up in the same pile as this year's Game Night ($69 million), Book Club ($64.6 million), Blockers ($59.8 million) and Life of the Party ($52.2 million), as it lands with about $55 million total.

Deadpool 2 still holds on, dropping only 35% from last weekend and becoming the oldest film in the top ten with another $3.4 million and $310.3 million after seven weekends. It certainly came a lot closer to the $363 million of the original than we initially expected.

We get a surprise in eighth place as Sanju earns $2.5 million in just 356 theaters. A biopic on famous Bollywood actor Sanjay Dutt, the film was a massive hit in its native India and Fox capitalized on a weak box office and a targeted release to land in the domestic top ten.

Solo: A Star Wars Story takes its last bow in the top ten with $2.2 million (down 49%) and a total of $207.2 million in six weekends. Still one of the biggest stunners of 2018, the word-of-mouth of "it's pretty good!" wasn't able to overcome the initial bad buzz and the general apathy to anyone other than Harrison Ford playing Han Solo. We've got a year and a half to go until Episode IX, so that's probably enough of a break for people to not be sick of Star Wars.

Documentaries continue to rule tenth place lately as the Mister Rogers film Won't You Be My Neighbor holds in with $2.2 million in 654 theaters and $7.4 million in four weekends.

The top 12 films this weekend earned $167.9 millon, up a notch from last year's $160.6 million when Despicable Me 3 led the way with $72.4 million.

Next weekend is a sort of holiday weekend, as July 4th falls on a Wednesday. We've got The First Purge opening that day (hitting a little too close to home, there), and since it's been a minute, Marvel returns with Ant-Man & The Wasp opening Friday.


Top Ten for Weekend of June 29-July 1, 2018
Rank
Film
Distributor
Estimated
Gross ($)
Weekly Change
Cumulative
Gross ($)
1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal 60.0 -59% 265.7
2 The Incredibles 2 Walt Disney 45.5 -43% 439.7
3 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony Pictures 19.0 New 19.0
4 Uncle Drew Lionsgate 15.5 New 15.5
5 Ocean's 8 Warner Bros. 8.0 -30% 114.7
6 Tag Warner Bros. 5.6 -32% 40.8
7 Deadpool 2 20th Century Fox 3.4 -35% 310.3
8 Sanju FIP 2.5 New 2.5
9 Solo: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney 2.2 -49% 207.2
10 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus Features 2.2 +26% 7.4
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations

     


 
 

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