Weekend Wrap-Up

by Tim Briody

June 24, 2018

I call this dino Bonk.

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Three years ago, Jurassic World stunned everyone by swooping in and topping The Avengers to take the opening weekend crown with $208 million. The sequel arrives this weekend, showing that was a bit of a fluke, and diminishing returns have already set in.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is quite easily the top film of the weekend, but it comes in with an estimated $150 million, a number I'm certainly Universal has inflated for a flashier headline. As our own Kim Hollis reported yesterday, Fallen Kingdom had a Friday take of $58.7 million, with $15.3 million coming from Thursday night showings. Mathing it out without the Thursday figure, a 3.1 multiplier for the weekend seems very unlikely. Just for reference, Jurassic World's weekend minus Thursday multiplier was 2.96. If Fallen Kingdom were to match that, it would be $143.7 million for the weekend. That would be a hefty overestimation, so it'll probably come in closer to $147 million. Either way, nice try, Universal.

In the era of the critically acclaimed blockbuster, the Jurassic World franchise is an outlier. Jurassic World earned 71% Fresh, while Fallen Kingdom sits at 50%. As the box office shows, though, it's definitely a bulletproof franchise as well. People love those dinosaurs.

Jurassic World parlayed its record opening weekend into $652.2 million, the sixth best total of all time (though it was in third place when it made it there, and fourth place when we entered 2018). Fallen Kingdom will not come anywhere near that total given the $58 million drop in opening weekends, though it does have a clear path next weekend and through the July 4th week until Ant-Man and the Wasp arrives. And even though Jurassic World dropped only 49% in its second weekend, I'm expecting a big decline next weekend, and right now would expect Fallen Kingdom to earn a bit over $300 million.




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The Incredibles 2 lands in second place with $80.9 million, a 56% drop from its remarkable opening weekend. While it seems high for an animated family movie, recent sequels have never held up well in subsequent weekends. Last year's Cars 3 dropped 55% and even 2016's Finding Dory, Pixar's biggest film ever (for now...), saw a 46% decline. The Incredibles 2 crosses the $350.3 million mark in just two weekends, already Pixar's fifth best film ever. It will blow by Inside Out ($356.4 million) and Finding Nemo ($380.5 million) midweek and pass Toy Story 3 ($415 million) next weekend, as it has its sights set on Finding Dory's $486.2 million total.

Ocean's 8 takes third with $11.6 million (down 39%) and crosses the $100 million mark in three weekends, becoming the 12th 2018 film to do so. That means all four of the films in the Ocean's franchise have reached $100 million, and 8 is on its way to be the second most successful of the lot, besting Thirteen ($117.1 million) and Twelve ($125.5 million). Ocean's Eleven earned $183.4 million all the way back in 2001.

Tag was not really it with audiences in its second weekend, dropping 45% with $8.2 million. The R-rated comedy has $30.3 million in a year that's not really been kind to them. It's looking at about $50 million, which these days rates as "pretty good" for the genre.

Deadpool 2 crosses the $300 million mark in its sixth weekend, adding $5.2 million to bring it to $304.1 million to date. Despite this, I still think a third one needs to wait a bit, if it even needs to happen at all. I enjoyed the sequel as much as the original, so let's just go out with that one, okay?

Solo: A Star Wars Story earns $4 million as it wheezes over the $202.1 million mark in its fifth weekend. We finally have our first legitimate fallout from Solo's gigantic disappointment, as plans for further spinoffs beyond the planned third film in 2020 have been reportedly been put on hold. Or maybe not, depending on who you believe. Either way, future films should focus on new characters, I think the big lesson Lucasfilm should learn here is that nobody should replace the iconic characters from the original trilogy.

Hereditary earns $3.8 million in its third weekend, giving it $35 million, making it A24's second highest grossing film in their brief existence. With just a $10 million budget, it's not quite Blumhouse money, but it's still definitely very profitable.

Eight place goes to Superfly, adding $3.3 million and giving it $15.2 million in two weekends. That's just shy of its reported $16 million budget, but I think Sony was both counting on more and expecting this to launch a franchise.

Avengers: Infinity War takes one last bow in ninth place for the weekend with $2.4 million and $669.4 million after nine weekends in theaters. That's so close to three and a half Solos, which I really never expected to use as a measurement.

After RBG crashed the top ten a few weeks ago, we get another fun documentary surprise in tenth place as Won't You Be My Neighbor earns $1.8 million and has $4.1 million after three weekends. A documentary about the life of Fred Rogers (and a philosphy we arguable should all be following in 2018), the Focus Features release expanded to 348 theaters this weekend and much like RBG, took advantage of a weak top ten to land here.

The top 12 films this weekend earned $273.3 million, easily topping last year's $132.9 million when Transformers: The Last Knight opened with a soft $44.6 million. Next weekend brings the rare dramatic sequel in Sicario: Day of the Soldado and an attempt at expanding a commercial into a feature length film as Kyrie Irving stars in Uncle Drew.


Top Ten for Weekend of June 22-24, 2018
Rank
Film
Distributor
Estimated
Gross ($)
Weekly Change
Cumulative
Gross ($)
1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal 150.0 New 150.0
2 The Incredibles 2 Walt Disney 80.9 -56% 350.3
3 Ocean's 8 Warner Bros. 11.6 -39% 100.3
4 Tag Warner Bros. 8.2 -45% 30.3
5 Deadpool 2 20th Century Fox 5.2 -40% 304.1
6 Solo: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney 4.0 -60% 202.1
7 Hereditary A24 3.8 -45% 34.9
8 Superfly Sony Pictures 3.3 -51% 15.2
9 Avengers: Infinity War Walt Disney 2.3 -54% 669.4
10 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus Features 1.8 +87% 4.1
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations

     


 
 

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