Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

June 23, 2018

One more time.

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The Jurassic Park series returns, this time in the form of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. I'm sure it's louder, more dinosaur-y, and bigger than the last one. I'll find out soon, since I'll be seeing it in a few hours.

Of course, Fallen Kingdom will not be reaching the lofty heights of Jurassic World, which set the opening weekend record for the time with $208.8 million. That's since been eclipsed Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, And The Avengers: Infinity War, but it was still mighty impressive at the time, particularly given the long time frame between movies.

Alas, that last film was a lot of sound and fury, and while it was a decent summer popcorn movie, a lot of people thought it was big and dumb and not fun. That feeling is reflected in Fallen Kingdom's decline from the 2015 film. Where Jurassic World came in with $82 million for Friday, Fallen Kingdom has a total of $58.7 million, including $15.3 million in Thursday night previews. That's really pretty rough as far as declines in interest go, but not at all surprising. The "true" Friday number is $43.4 million, which is kind of skimpy for a movie with this kind of budget and blockbusteriness (yes, it's a word. I swear). The MOST generous of estimates would put it at $145 million, so I'm pretty sure that's about what Universal will estimate. The real number will be less, but they'll just fudge that into the weekday box office.


So, The Incredibles 2, which opened higher than Fallen Kingdom will, declined 66 percent from last Friday. That's hefty, but not unexpected, particularly given the fact that the Thursday preview numbers are factored in AND that Pixar movies that open this large tend to have heavier second weekend declines. Let's call it $92 million for the weekend, though it would be awfully cool to have two movies in theaters over $100 million. I'm rooting for that.

In this week's bit of feel-good news, the Mr. Rogers documentary Won't You Be My Neighbor is in tenth place as of Friday with $545,000 from just 348 venues. If you're feeling some despair about the state of the world, this is a good way to assuage those feelings, folks. Let's give it $1.5 million for the weekend and we'll watch for it as a contender for Best Documentary assuming there's not some arcane rule that disqualifies it.



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