Friday Box Office Analysis
By Kim Hollis
May 5, 2018
Overboard shocked the world with a...
Nah, I can't do it. Yes, Overboard will earn more than you would probably guess based on the total lack of marketing, but this weekend - and next weekend - will continue to be all about Avengers: Infinity War.
After breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens' opening weekend record last weekend, Infinity War was obviously on a course to fall pretty precipitously. People rushed out to see the latest in the Avengers saga for fear of spoilers, and rightfully so. With many of the likeliest movie-goers having already attended the movie, Avengers: Infinity War fell a whopping 70 percent from last Friday to $31.4 million. Keep in mind that if you remove the Thursday preview total of $39 million last weekend, that does change things pretty dramatically.
Over the remainder of the weekend, I'd expect Infinity Wars to recover a pretty significant amount. Most of these huge, record-setting films will decline about 60 percent in their second weekend, especially during the month of May. That's going to be my prediction for Infinity Wars, though it has done nothing but surprise so far with regards to its holding power. I'll say $105 million, but I won't be surprised if it winds up with $110 million or more. It will be approaching $450 million domestic by the end of this weekend. And... it should cross the billion mark worldwide. That's two weekends of box office, people. Holy cow.
Let's quickly review our new releases, as only one of them really showed any promise. That movie was Overboard, the Anna Faris/Eugenio Derbez remake from Pantelion. The thing is, Anna Faris is a pretty decent Goldie Hawn substitute, even though Derbez is actually playing the Hawn role, as this one completely reverses the genders. Considering the terrible reviews, you can credit Pantelion's ability to raise awareness amongst the Spanish-speaking demographic. Although their projects are never super high profile, they always do better than you'd think. Overboard earned $4.8 million yesterday and should come in with about $14 million.
Tully is the latest team-up from director Jason Reitman and writer Diablo Cody (Juno). Like their 2011 collaboration Young Adult, this one features Charlize Theron. This time around, they're receiving rave reviews and a lot of positive buzz. It's 89 percent positive at Rotten Tomatoes and doesn't yet have a score at Cinemascore. With a Friday total of $1.2 million, it's not going to make a huge dent in the box office, but I expect it to be one of those little cult films that is remembered fondly. Look for $4 million this weekend.
Finally, Bad Samaritan, featuring my favorite Doctor, David Tennant, earned just $651,000. I only knew this movie existed because I write for this site. Anyway, it will be happy with $1.5 million before fading off to irrelevance. You can catch Tennant's voice in the new DuckTales, though, where he plays Scrooge McDuck.