Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

March 3, 2018

Hello. It's me again.

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Sure, some other movies opened this weekend, but the story is still Black Panther.

Indeed, after an outrageous performance during its second frame wherein it only dropped 42% (crazy for a movie that debuted more than $200 million), Black Panther continues to maintain all of its staying power as it earned $16.3 million. That's a decline of only 43%, a number that should continue to improve over the course of the weekend as people are off on Saturday and Sunday. Oftentimes the Oscars will impact the overall movie weekend, but I'm not sure that Black Panther should be expected to follow normal expectations, ever.

So, what that means for weekend three is that Black Panther should come in with $72.6 million. I bet it's even more than that, maybe even $75 million (and then actuals that are reported even higher). This is a movie that currently sits with more than $450 million domestically... after just three weekends. Its worldwide total is approaching $800 million. Disney has started the year STRONG.


What that means for new release Red Sparrow (aka the movie that is nothing like Black Widow's origin story, we swear to God) is that it has a second place Friday finish with $6 million. That's an okay number, particularly since the movie was made for only $70 million. Over the three-day portion of the weekend, we'll give it $16.2 million. With mixed reviews and word-of-mouth, I doubt it hangs around for too long, but it is an alternative option for those who have seen Black Panther and Jumanji, I guess.

Third place goes to Death Wish, and MGM is probably fine with that given the fact that it really is a poorly timed film in the midst of a gun debate that finally appears to be gaining some traction. Starring Bruce Willis (and handicapped by some pretty bad reviews), the film earned $4.3 million yesterday and should have a weekend total of $11.4 million.

It's a weird year where none of the Oscar contenders is a factor in the box office, but here we are. None of them are in the top 10 for yesterday.



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