Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

February 10, 2011

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Yesterday brought us the finale (please, please, please never let there be another entry - see what I did there - in this series) of the Fifty Shades franchise. The bad news? It made money and will finish in first place. The good news? It will be out of theaters in a flash and then we can never speak of it again.

Fifty Shades Freed, a film featuring two stars with the least amount of onscreen chemistry possible, earned $18.5 million yesterday. That includes $5.6 million from Thursday evening previews, so its true Friday was really $12.9 million. That's not a great sign for its weekend total, honestly. Based on that information, I'd put it around $37.5 million, but I think the studio will estimate it at $40 million. It's a nice round number and they can easily hide the overage in weekdays later in the film's run.

Our second new release is a kids' movie, so I guess there's something for just about everyone this frame. (We'll have something for the more testosterone-driven crown in a moment.) Peter Rabbit, aka the movie that makes Domhnall Gleeson look silly over and over again, earned $5.7 million yesterday. It's full of broad comedy and is the first real new family choice of interest since Jumanji, so it should continue to perform well enough over the remainder of the weekend. Look for about $17.7 million here.


Next, we have Clint Eastwood's The 15:17 to Paris, a movie that recounts a real-lift thwarting of a terrorist attack with the heroes portrayed by the people who actually did the real-life thwarting. It's a bit of stunt casting, to be sure, and if it had been any good, we probably would have seen it during awards season. (It's not like Eastwood can't get a film finished quickly.) Anyway, it's just 20% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and has a B- on Rotten Tomatoes (which is super bad considering that this group is most likely to give an enthusiastic review). So, with a $3.7 million total yesterday, the weekend should come in at $10.7 million.

With regards to holdovers, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle keeps on chugging along, with just a 23% decline yesterday. It will have a weekend total of $8.7 million. The Greatest Showman had one of its bigger Friday drops at 29%, but nonetheless, it will have a great weekend total of $6.2 million. Its theatrical run has been outrageous. Winchester fell 62% and barely registers in the top 10 at this point, but it will go out with a whimper and $4.2 million before it's all said and done.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Fifty Shades Freed 40.0
2 Peter Rabbit 17.7
3 The 15:17 to Paris 10.7
4 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 8.7
5 The Greatest Showman 6.2
6 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 5.8
7 Winchester 4.2
8 The Post 3.1
9 The Shape of Water 2.6
10 Den of Thieves 2.5



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