Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

January 20, 2018

Thor. On a horse.

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It's Jumanji's world. We're all just living in it.

Yes, we did have a couple of new wide releases yesterday. And yes, somehow they finished with exactly the same dollar amount. Both 12 Strong and Den of Thieves earned $5.66 million on Friday. That's the unlikeliest result possible - from the identical number to the fact that Den of Thieves did so well and including a bit of an underperformance from 12 Strong.

So, we'll start with Den of Thieves. The Gerard Butler/50 Cent/O'Shea Jackson film from STX Entertainment pulled in a strong $5.66 million yesterday. It's probably not going to continue to hold up quite so well over the remainder of the weekend, and I suspect that 12 Strong will actually finish ahead of it (though not in first place). I'd estimate $14.4 million for Den of Thieves and figure that the studio will be pretty happy with the result given the $30 million budget. It should make that back in theaters, though it will be home video that will push it to profitability.

12 Strong, on the other hand, had a $35 million budget, and will probably come in just ever so slightly ahead of Den of Thieves. The Chris Hemsworth-led war film from Warner Bros. should manage $15.3 million for the weekend. It's the kind of film that usually does well at this time of year, so older audiences *might* go out to support it to a higher number; however, they have a lot of other options at this point, including a lot of awards contenders.


So, the way is cleared once again for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle to triumph. Down just 20% from last Friday, audiences are continuing to embrace this Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart/Karen Gillan outing. It is currently the eighth biggest domestic film of 2017 and should pass up Thor: Ragnarok for seventh pretty quickly. It's probably going to lose a bit of ground over the weekend since last weekend had the holiday, but nonetheless, Jumanji is due to win yet another weekend with $21 million.

The Post had a much bigger drop than Jumanji at 41% as it had a Friday total of $3.5 million. Even so, it's going to do just fine over the remainder of the weekend. Look for about $14 million, though it might just contend for second place if the support from older audiences is there.

A couple of other films of note are in the top 12, with Forever My Girl (apparently a thing!) earning $1.5 million. It should make $4.2 million. Then, Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread expanded to 896 venues and earned $1 million. Its semi-wide release should lead to about $3.1 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 21.0
2 12 Strong 15.3
3 Den of Thieves 14.4
4 The Post 14.0
5 The Greatest Showman 12.1
6 Paddington 2 7.7
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7.5
8 The Commuter 6.5
9 Insidious: The Last Key 6.2
10 Forever My Girl 4.2



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