Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

January 13, 2018

Running of the rhinos.

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With the arrival of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, we have a bunch of new and expanding films trying to topple the reigning champion, which happens to be Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. Could they do it? No. No, they could not. One of them did manage to get pretty close, though.

We'll start with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which is headed to yet another weekend victory as it earned $6.1 million. That's down 43% from last Friday, a little high, but it should even out all right over the remainder of the weekend given that Sunday will behave a little bit like a Saturday since there's a holiday Monday hanging out there. We'll give it $24.2 million for the three-day portion of the weekend. It'll probably get close to $30 million for four days.

Coming in second is The Post, Steven Spielberg's award-contending flick led by Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks. It earned an awesome $5.9 million yesterday as it expanded to 2,819 venues (from 36). It's up a super-awesome 1,088% from the previous Friday, and should play well to older audiences as the frame continues. A $19 million three-day portion is a great start for what is sure to be a solid awards run. It's the kind of film that the Academy generally really likes.




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We have a bit of a surprise in third as The Commuter finishes ahead of Proud Mary and Paddington 2. Don't count Liam Neeson out just yet! It earned $4.6 million yesterday and is a perfect day out for audiences who might be missing some more adult-oriented action. It should have a $13 million three-day weekend, which is pretty solid given the presumed Liam Neeson fatigue that many were talking about prior to the opening.

Proud Mary takes fifth place as rumors that it got buried will be the big story this weekend rather than its box office. You can Google for the details, but let's just say that if they are true, it's not going to be pretty. With $3.2 million, it could have done a lot better if there had been any real studio support behind it. Henson is a popular performer and she deserves more from Sony. $9 million for the three-day portion of the holiday frame sounds about right here.

Our final new wide release is Paddington 2, the 100% fresh film at Rotten Tomatoes with 147 critics weighing in. Alas, that didn't translate into a fantastic first Friday, as it earned $2.4 million. It'll have a better weekend than that, as it should do a lot better on Saturday and Sunday (and Monday) when kids are out of school. It has already made $125 million overseas, so any North American earnings are kind of superfluous at this point. I think it can manage as much as $11 million for the weekend if the circumstances are right.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 24.2
2 The Post 19.0
3 The Commuter 13.0
4 Insidious: The Last Key 11.8
5 Paddington 2 11.0
6 The Greatest Showman 10.2
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 10.1
8 Proud Mary 9.0
9 Darkest Hour 4.7
10 Pitch Perfect 3 4.6

     


 
 

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