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Best Motion Picture, Drama
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Lady Bird

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Comedy
James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Screenplay
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Guild Updates: Writers and Art Directors

Meanwhile, groups with actual overlap with the Academy have released more nominations. The Writers’ Guild of America and the Art Directors each gave out mentions in a number of categories.

Writers: Original Screenplay Is Where It is At

The writers have the same two categories as the Oscars, but they have strange and strict guild eligibility rules such that year in year out, a lot of stuff does not show up here that is a serious Oscar threat. This year is no different, with Original Screenplay powerhouse Three Billboards not eligible. Nor was The Florida Project for that matter. We will get to Oscar predicting later this season, but this could be a place where they reward several movies and give Lady Bird love it will not get in Best Picture.

In any case, the real race this year in both the guild and here is in Best Original. The Adapted nominees are Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Molly’s Game, Logan, and Mudbound. I have a hard time imaging anything other than the purported Best Picture nominee CMBYN winning here. There has been a lot of support for James Franco’s movie but I wonder if it’s more a vocal devoted minority than anything else. Clearly a comic book movie is not going to win. I suppose Dee Rees’ film also has somewhat of a chance.

Given the above, here is our first of the year handicap of the Best Adapted Screenplay race, a very short list of only a few contenders.

Meanwhile, in Best Original we have an embarrassment of riches, a welcome thing given that it is normally the other way around. The nominees are The Big Sick, Get Out, I Tonya, Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.

I think Big Sick and Shape are out—one is small, the other more a technical production. It is probably between Get Out and Lady Bird, but we will have to wait and see what other guilds do. In any event, given this, here is the handicap for Best Original screenplay.

Art Directors: Fantasy vs. Period

The Art Directors give out awards in three categories, fantasy, period, and contemporary. Except for last year, when La La Land took the contemporary prize and then the Oscar, the category with the Academy normally goes somewhere where the Art Directors’ went in fantasy or period. The nominees for fantasy this year are fanboy favorites like The Last Jedi, Blade Runner: 2049, Wonder Woman, and War for the Planet of the Apes, as well as Beauty and the Beast. The Dennis Villeneuve movie has the most “prestige” and I expect it will triumph here and probably also at the Academy Awards.

The period nominees are slightly tougher, but they include The Post, The Shape of Water, Murder on the Orient Express, Dunkirk, and Darkest Hour. This is a tough one. Joe Wright’s movie arguably has the most Art Direction, but the guild will likely go for a more respected film, so it is probably Dunkirk or Shape. The Oscars may in fact go for “most,” however, so stay tuned.

Up Next: Producers’ Guild Announce Friday and Directors Monday. We will be back with Post-Globes Coverage and More

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