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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

December 2, 2017

Give this kid a sombrero!

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It's a weekend with no new wide releases and only a few awards contenders platforming to more screens. Although this is typical box office behavior for the weekend after Thanksgiving, it doesn't make it any more fun to report on it.

Our #1 film of the weekend will once again be Coco (and possibly next weekend as well). It earned $6.3 million yesterday, down 67% from the inflated Black Friday the week before. Moana fell an even higher 70% last year, so this decline is no surprise at all. Disney has to feel pretty good that Coco is trending slightly ahead (and also that its weekday behavior is very similar to Moana as well). Coco's box office should even out a fair amount over the remainder of the weekend, giving it a three-day total of $25.4 million.

Second, then, goes to Justice League, which had a 72% collapse from its Black Friday total. With $4.6 million from Friday box office, it's going to have a tough third weekend total of $17.7 million. The WB production will have to hope for a better hold next weekend, as it will probably be Justice League's last real chance for domestic dollars. The juggernaut of Star Wars: The Last Jedi arrives the following weekend, and there won't be much reason for audiences to even think about an inferior DC product.




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Wonder fell 59%, but like Coco, it should really find its audience on Saturday and Sunday thanks to school being in session yesterday. It will add another $12 million to its coffers and may come upon a weekend in the next few frames where it gets ahead of Justice League on the chart. Most people wouldn't have predicted this one as a $100 million plus earner, but here we are.

As Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri more than doubles its screens, its decline from Black Friday was just 17%. It should come in with around $4 million. Lady Bird also expanded its venue count, and its drop from last Friday was 18%. Look for a weekend total around $3.6 million. These two films will be amongst the ones drawing attention for Academy Awards this season, and will be contending against such projects as The Disaster Artist, which earned $478,000 yesterday on just 19 screens, and The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro's latest film, as it managed $55,000 yesterday from a single screen.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Coco 25.4
2 Justice League 17.7
3 Wonder 12.0
4 Thor: Ragnarok 8.4
5 Daddy's Home 2 6.6
6 Murder on the Orient Express 6.5
7 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 4.0
8 Lady Bird 3.6
9 A Bad Moms Christmas 3.4
10 The Star 3.3

     


 
 

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Monday, December 18, 2017
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