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Weekend Forecast for December 1-3, 2017

By Kim Hollis

November 30, 2017

They're the only ones excited for this weekend.

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Ah, the post-Thanksgiving box office weekend. It's the time when all studios and distributors just flat out give up and figure that the holiday leftovers can keep things going for a bit of time until Star Wars arrives to destroy their enemies. There's not a single new wide release, not even the traditional terrible horror flick. Next week won't be much better, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

After a pretty easy victory last weekend, Coco will take the top spot at the box office once again. We have plenty of good models to follow, with Moana's 50% decline over the same weekend last year being the most obvious comparison. That would mean a $25 million weekend that should take Coco well into the holiday season, where it will rack up the big bucks before taking home an inevitable Oscar. Way to go once again, Lee Unkrich.




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Remember when people got excited about Batman? I suppose they still do, maybe. Sort of. Anyway, Justice League, which should have been a triumphant release for WB, is turning out to be a nightmare. Yes, that sounds ridiculous to say for a film that has a little over $175 million in domestic box office so far, but the out-of-hand production budget means that it really was going to need to approach $800-900 million worldwide to be profitable. Studios receive greatly deflated receipts from those foreign markets (and sometimes they struggle to collect at all in certain territories). Look for $20 million for the weekend.

Wonder, on the other hand, is proving to be one of the more pleasant box office stories of 2017. After a tiny 18% decline last week, Wonder is a film that stands to have one of the better holds out of the top ten releases. I'd estimate $14.8 million this weekend, while next weekend will allow some legs to emerge.

That's about it as far as big box office stories, though Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird will both be expanding. Also, potential awards contenders The Shape of Water (from director Guillermo del Toro) and The Disaster Artist (from director, star, and general renaissance man James Franco) will debut in limited release.


Forecast: Weekend of December 1-3, 2017
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Coco 3,987 No change 25.1
2 Justice League 3,820 -231 19.8
3 Wonder 3,449 +277 14.9
4 Thor: Ragnarok 3,148 -133 8.4
5 Daddy's Home 2 3,403 -115 8.3
6 Murder on the Orient Express 3,201 +49 8.2
7 The Star 2,822 -15 3.6
8 A Bad Moms Christmas 2,251 -55 2.5
9 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 1,430 +816 3.2
10 Roman J. Israel, Esq. 1,669 No change 3.0

     


 
 

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Monday, December 18, 2017
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