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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

November 11, 2017

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Thor will continue to reign supreme this weekend, but a couple of mid-level movies will perform better than expectations. Perhaps the holiday season will finally pick the box office up out of its rut.

Thor: Ragnarok

The well-loved Marvel film came in with $18.3 million for its second Friday. That's a 61% drop, but we have to remember that last Friday's total included $14.5 million, which was a third of its take for that opening day. Given the popularity of the movie and the likelihood of repeat viewings, it should straighten out pretty nicely over the remainder of the weekend. Give it $61 million and an easy victory over the new releases for this frame, even if they're going to prove more hardy than most predictions.

Daddy's Home 2

The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg/Mel Gibson/John Lithgow comedy defied critics and tracking to debut with a solid $10.9 million yesterday. Apparently, there's a lot more goodwill for that first movie than anyone realized. Or perhaps people just want to see Mel Gibson. I hope not. Anyway, with a Friday total just $130,000 higher than Murder on the Orient Express, Daddy's Home may not manage second place for the weekend. Ordinarily, I'd say that Murder's audience skews older, but the presence of Gibson and Lithgow in a Meet the Fockers style story probably changes the landscape a little bit. Look for Paramount to estimate the weekend at $30 million.




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Murder on the Orient Express

The adaptation of the fantastic Agatha Christie mystery novel came in with $10.8 million yesterday, which is really pretty terrific given the fact that reviews were middling and the budget was just $55 million. The all-star cast offered a little something for everyone, from Johnny Depp getting his just desserts to Daisy Ridley to Judi Dench to Hamilton's Leslie Odom Jr. Again, this is generally the type of film that appeals to the older set, not least because Christie's books had the height of their popularity a long time ago. Still, Poirot has lived on thanks to PBS and a couple of 1970s-era films, and audiences should remember it fondly. (I know that Hercule Poirot was my hero when I was a kid.) Look for a weekend total of $30.1 million - second place will all come down to estimates.

Lady Bird

One of the best-reviewed films of the year, Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird enters the top ten despite just playing on 37 screens. It's a weak set of films from fifth place to ninth place, to be sure. With about $400,000 on Friday, Lady Bird should clear $1 million for the weekend, likely around $1.3 million or perhaps a bit more.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Thor: Ragnarok 61.0
2 Murder on the Orient Express 30.1
3 Daddy's Home 2 30.0
4 A Bad Moms Christmas 13.4
5 Jigsaw 4.0
6 Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 2.7
7 Geostorm 1.9
8 Blade Runner 2049 1.7
9 Happy Death Day 1.6
10 Lady Bird 1.3

     


 
 

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