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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 28, 2017

So is this person really dead, or fake dead?

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Jigsaw

The Saw franchise has returned, seven years after being snuffed out by the Paranormal Activity franchise. Jigsaw earned $7.1 million on Friday, a decent figure for a franchise that’s been moribund for some time. While it’s down from Saw 3D’s $10.6 million (which took advantage of the 3D gimmick that was all the rage back in 2010), that against the second weekend of Paranormal Activity 2, which by that point had earned more than Saw 3D did in its entire run. It’s like that jealous girlfriend meme where she’s the Saw franchise and the guy is looking at the Paranormal Activity movies.

Anyway, the worry here is that the gore-fest behaves like 2009’s Saw VI, and has an all-time bad weekend multiplier, as that one (in the face of the $100 million earning Paranormal Activity), opened to $6.9 million and finished with a $14.1 million weekend, for a 2.02 weekend. 3D at least came in with a 2.27 multiplier, for a $24.2 million weekend. No matter how you slice it (bad choice of metaphor?), the weekend multiplier will not be all that great, but it’s on pace to win the weekend even if it didn’t earn another dollar. Jigsaw takes the Halloween weekend with about $15 million.




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Thank You For Your Service

The war drama about returning veterans, while about a serious topic that needs to be addressed, is just too depressing for cinema, as Thank You For Your Service earns just $1.5 million on Friday. I’m reminded of 2008’s Stop-Loss, which also flopped similarly, with just $1.6 million on Friday and $4.5 million for the weekend (and just $11 million total). Thank You For Your Service will quickly be a distant memory, with just $4.3 million for the weekend.

Suburbicon

Directed by George Clooney and starring Matt Damon, the dark comedy is also ignored on the weekend, with only $1.1 million. The awful reviews didn’t help matters either, and it’s a huge miss for everyone involved. Give it about $3 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween plunges 64.7% from last Friday to just $2.6 million. Last year’s Madea holiday entry dropped only 51% from its first Friday, so that’s…not good. Potentially buoyed by Halloween not happening yet (the first one did manage a 3.73 second weekend multiplier), it’s likely to be saved by that. That would give Boo 2 a $9.6 million second weekend.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Jigsaw 14.9
2 Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 9.6
3 Geostorm 5.2
4 Happy Death Day 4.7
5 Thank You For Your Service 4.3
6 Blade Runner 2049 3.9
7 Only the Brave 3.3
8 The Foreigner 3.2
9 Suburbicon 3.1
10 It 2.3

     


 
 

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Friday, November 24, 2017
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