Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

October 14, 2017

I've seen more intimidating slasher dudes.

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The year of movie badness continues, though we have a tiny glimmer of light with yet another successful venture from Blumhouse Productions. Unfortunately, the bad news continues for Blade Runner 2049, while our other smaller releases were average performers at best.

Our box office champion for the weekend will easily be Happy Death Day, the latest horror release from the consistently successful Blumhouse Productions. Audiences always seem to get excited for these films in varying degrees, and this time, the $5 million budgeted project earned that back and more as it came in with a first day total of $11.6 million. That number includes $1 million from its Thursday night previews. It stars absolutely no one you know and comes from the director of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones and Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse.

With a 67% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and a B Cinemascore, it's actually lesser Blumhouse, but even minor Blumhouse is better than most horror films that are released these days. With a weekend total of $27.5 million, it kicks off the Halloween season nicely (although I suppose It has already done that if you want to be super technical).

Second place yesterday did not go to Blade Runner 2049. No, instead it went to the Jackie Chan/Pierce Brosnan action thriller The Foreigner. No one is expecting huge things from this STX Entertainment film (unless you're looking at overseas totals). Even so, it managed a decent $4.8 million yesterday, a number that includes an insignificant $750,000 in sneak previews. That would indicate about $11.6 million for the weekend, not too bad considering the $35 million budget. It may not hit that number in domestic theaters, but ancillary revenue should give it a shot at profitability.


That leaves Blade Runner 2049 in third place with a Friday total of just $4.3 million. It has become pretty clear that although the original Blade Runner is considered a modern classic, it nonetheless has a very limited fan base. If you were thinking it might have legs thanks to reviews and run time, you'd be wrong. It declined 66% from last Friday. It will even out a little bit over the weekend, but the damage is done. Look for a weekend total in the range of $13.5 million. At least it should get back to second place.

In 821 locations, Marshall, a biopic of Thurgood Marshall featuring Chadwick Boseman in the title role, earned $1 million for Open Road Pictures. $3 million for the weekend is fine, but maybe not enough to garner any real awards buzz. The film does have great reviews, so it might have a shot at some legs.

Annapurna Pictures released Professor Marston and the Wonder Women into 1,229 venues, but it only managed $248,000 yesterday. This one will fall off the radar quickly, which is a bit of a shame since it appears that audiences are generally enjoying it. It might get to $750,000 for the weekend.

I think what we can establish is that audiences are getting more and more discerning with their entertainment dollar. We're heading out of October to the busy holiday/awards season. Will the November/December releases be able to show some resilience?

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Happy Death Day 27.5
2 Blade Runner 2049 13.5
3 The Foreigner 11.6
4 It 6.0
5 The Mountain Between Us 5.1
6 American Made 4.8
7 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 4.5
8 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 4.0
9 Marshall 3.0
10 Flatliners 1.4



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