Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 24, 2017

But where is the Bandit?

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Transformers: The Last Knight

The fifth entry in the Transformers series earns $13.7 million on Friday after taking in $23.8 million on Wednesday and Thursday. Even all together, that $37.5 million in the first three days is off from the $41.8 million Friday of Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014. Say it with me kids: this one is for the international audiences.

Trans4mers managed to just barely eke over $100 million with that Friday take, but that’s pretty much out of the question for Trans5mers. If we go back to 2011’s Dark of the Moon, which also launched midweek (ahead of the July 4th weekend, which fell on a Monday), that had a weekend proper of $97.8 million after $64.7 million in its first two days. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. What this all means is that The Last Knight is headed to a weekend win, but with a massively disappointing figure. Look for a weekend of $38.3 million and $62.1 million in five days.


Notable Holdovers

With Transformers the only new release on the weekend (fools! What were you afraid of?), we take a quick look at the rest of the relevant films. Cars 3 drops 55% from last Friday to $7.7 million. As we’ve pointed out before, Pixar movies tend to behave a little different than most animated films, especially when it comes to opening weekends and the following weekends. Cars 2 actually had a 69% Friday to Friday decline, so this is a little bit better. There will also be a decent rebound from the normal-for-Pixar 2.73 weekend multiplier from last week. Unfortunately, Cars 3 will probably be lapped by Wonder Woman for second place with a second weekend of $26.1 million.

Wonder Woman passes the $300 million mark with $7.3 million on Friday, again down just 32% from last Friday, and has a decent chance of making $400 million. See DC? That wasn’t so hard, was it? Wonder Woman is headed to a fourth weekend of $27.9 million.

Last weekend’s 47 Meters Down drops 48% from last weekend to $2.3 million, slightly above expectations for the a thriller. It’s going for a decent second weekend of $7.1 million

Meanwhile last weekend’s surprise All Eyez on Me collapses 81% from last Friday to $1.9 million. The Tupac biopic managed a remarkably bad 2.06 weekend multiplier last week, which indicates the target audience pretty much all came out Friday night and that’s what happened. And if I knew any Tupac songs besides the title I’d make a witty reference here. There will be a rebound to about $6 million on the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Transformers: The Last Knight 38.3
2 Wonder Woman 27.9
3 Cars 3 26.1
4 47 Meters Down 7.1
5 The Mummy 6.6
6 All Eyez On Me 6.1
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 5.9
8 Rough Night 5.1
9 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 4.8
10 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 3.6



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