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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 27, 2017

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Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

The fifth Pirates of the Caribbean movie, 14 years after the first one and six years after On Stranger Tides, starts the Memorial Day weekend with $23.4 million, with $5.5 million of that coming via Thursday previews. The only other film in the franchise to open over Memorial Day was 2007’s At World’s End, which had a first Friday of $42.9 million. 2011’s On Stranger Tides started the weekend prior and had an opening day of $34.8 million. This is the lowest opening day of any Pirates movie since the first one in 2003, which had a $14.8 million Friday after opening on a Wednesday in July 2003.

This is franchise fatigue at its finest, and the gap between the fourth and fifth movies did it no favors. Much like most other big franchises now, Dead Men Tell No Tales mainly exists for the rest of the world (where On Stranger Tides earned $1 billion worldwide despite being the lowest domestic earner by nearly $65 million), and that will prop it up, but we’re headed to an relatively weak holiday weekend at the box office. Dead Men Tell No Tales wins the weekend with a three-day total of $63.5 million and about $74 million in four days.

Baywatch

The comedic adaptation of the '90s TV show opened on Thursday, momentarily claiming the top spot at the box office with $4.6 million. Unfortunately, it could only boost that to $5.7 million on Friday, so its triumph will be short lived. It's in second place on Friday, but Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is breathing down its neck and will be a much better weekend performer, so not only is it lagging behind Pirates of the Caribbean, it's likely looking at a third place finish on the weekend. Despite the presence of The Rock and Zac Efron (and also boobs), Baywatch looking at a four day-total of $21.7 million and about $25 million over it’s five day release weekend.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 63.5
2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 21.0
3 Baywatch 17.7
4 Alien: Covenant 9.5
5 Everything, Everything 6.5
6 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 4.5
7 Snatched 3.4
8 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 3.1
9 The Boss Baby 2.0
10 The Fate of the Furious 1.4

     


 
 

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