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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 29, 2017

I have no idea if this will help me be a Latin lover. But it can't hurt.

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Niche releases are the story of the weekend as The Fate of the Furious has one last ride at the top of the box office.

Baahubali 2: The Conclusion

We begin today with some history in that the #2 film on Friday is Indian production Baahubali 2: The Conclusion with $4.6 million in just 434 theaters. Forgive us for not including this in the forecast column, the first movie in this action franchise placed 10th for the weekend in July 2015 with $3.2 million in 239 theaters, but was one of the most successful films of all time in India. Not technically a “Bollywood” release (which mainly refers to films released in Hindi), but instead filmed in the languages of Telgu and Tamil (and later dubbed into Hindi), Baahubali 2 was helped by a very weak box office and also a few IMAX screens. In fact, the film actually took in $2.5 million of its Friday total in Thursday night showings, so it’s a massively front loaded blockbuster on a miniature scale. The front loading matters more than you think when it comes to where it will end up on the weekend, as Baahubali 2 is headed to a weekend of around $9 million.

How to Be a Latin Lover

Third place goes to How to Be a Latin Lover with $3.9 million on Friday in 1,118 theaters. Also coming in ahead of expectations, this one stars popular Mexican comedic actor Eugenio Derbez, who we last saw in 2013 when Instructions Not Included earned $7.8 million in 348 theaters. While this is a targeted release from Pantelion Films, a joint venture of Lionsgate, I would expect this performance to get Derbez a major US studio release for his next project. Not nearly as front loaded as Baahubali, I’d expect How to Be a Latin Lover to leap over it to grab #2 for the weekend, an impressive feat. Look for a weekend of $10.9 million.



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The Circle

The one wide release on the weekend is one of the year’s bigger flops, as The Circle takes in just $3.2 million on Friday. Despite the presence of Tom Hanks and Emma Watson, the lousy reviews kept people away, and those who did see it gave it a D+ CinemaScore, which ranks it as one of the worst of all time. The Circle should finish with $8.6 million for the weekend and it will disappear very quickly from here.

The Fate of the Furious

That leaves The Fate of the Furious on top for one last weekend, despite falling another 54% to $5.8 million and making it very close between it and Baahubali 2 for the top spot on the weekend. The 8th Fast and Furious film will leave it in the dust over the rest of the weekend, but it will fall short of breaking the $200 million mark, which is will do midweek. It’s headed to a weekend of $19.2 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Fate of the Furious 19.2
2 How to Be a Latin Lover 10.9
3 Baahubali 2: The Conclusion 9.1
4 The Circle 8.6
5 The Boss Baby 7.8
6 Beauty and the Beast 6.2
7 Going in Style 3.2
8 Gifted 2.9
9 Born in China 2.1
10 Unforgettable 2.0

     


 
 

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