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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 4, 2017

Look out, Hugh. A bandit is behind you. Or maybe someone from the Dark Tower set.

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Logan

Hugh Jackman’s final turn as Wolverine after 17 years and nine movies goes out with a bang as Logan earns $33 million on Friday. As the Wolverine standalone movies go, that’s a hair behind 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($34.4 million) and well ahead of 2013’s The Wolverine ($20.6 million). The important distinction here is that both of those movies were rated PG-13, while Logan has earned a very hard R rating. Combined with the overwhelmingly positive reviews (94% Fresh), it’s looking at an incredibly strong weekend.

Logan earned $9.5 million on its Friday total via Thursday evening showings, giving it a proper Friday of $23.5 million. Buoyed by word-ofmouth and good reviews, it’s headed to an easy weekend win of around $80 million, and a bit more than that isn’t out of the question.




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Get Out

Last weekend’s breakout hit Get Out again manages to defy the pitfalls of the horror genre. After earning a 99% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes (with only one negative review; guys, we found the hipster!), Get Out avoided an Oscar Sunday collapse and proved underestimated, earning $33.3 million on the weekend, which really bode well for its future. Indeed, with $8 million on Friday, that’s just a 26% Friday-to-Friday decline for Get Out. This. Does. Not. Happen. With. Horror. Movies. This is a rare case of reviews actually mattering and word-of-mouth making a difference. It’s got a reported production cost of just $4.5 million, and has earned $57.9 million in just eight days in theaters, which means Get Out is likely headed to $100 million within a few weeks should it continue this trajectory. For the weekend, Get Out is going to earn $24.6 million, and I sincerely hope Jordan Peele becomes an incredible filmmaking force because of this performance.

The Shack

Faith-based book adaptation The Shack earns a stronger than expected $5.4 million on Friday. Critically eviscerated, the target audience wasn't bothered by the reviews and will send it to a weekend of $15 million.

Before I Fall

Teen Groundhog Day redux Before I Fall doesn’t make an impact with the YA audience, earning just $1.6 million on Friday (which still does place it fifth on the day). The best that this could possibly hope for is $4.5 million for the weekend.

Moonlight

Best Picture winner… *triple checks* yes, Best Picture winner Moonlight expands from 585 theaters to 1,564 and earns $600,000 on Friday, which places it in 11th on Friday. While it feels like a poor performance (it’s only earned $23.5 million to date), the subject matter does not have the accessibility of say a La La Land or Hidden Figures, so it’s fine. It’s going to come in with a bit under $2 million on the weekend, still missing the top ten.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Logan 80.0
2 Get Out 24.6
3 The Shack 15.0
4 The Lego Batman Movie 11.0
5 John Wick: Chapter Two 4.9
6 Before I Fall 4.5
7 Hidden Figures 3.6
8 Fifty Shades Darker 3.5
9 The Great Wall 3.5
10 La La Land 3.1

     


 
 

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