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Another year another…day in the sun? As the La La Land Oscars come to a close, it’s time to put up or shut up and lay our stakes into what we think are the likely winners.

Every year has safe categories and iffy ones. This time around the main races are locked but there are serious doubts about two acting races and, unlike last year, the screenplay races seem up for grabs.

So, as usual, I don’t want to bore you with a recap of the whole year, as fun as it’s been from when everyone thought The Birth of a Nation was going to win Best Picture until today. You can read all of it in its gruesome gory details here.

Instead, last minute reminders about how to win your Oscar ballot.

Rule No. 1: They vote for what they like. I type this every year and people don’t listen to me. They don’t vote for what they think is Best, they don’t vote for what they think sends a message. They walk into that theater or pop in that screener, watch a movie, and if it makes them cry or laugh, they like it, and they click it. The Academy members are no different than, say, American voters in election. Simple, straightforward. If the message is too complicated, they likely won’t like it.

Rule No. 2: (A corollary) Your Worst Ballot-Filling Enemy is an Oscar Prognosticator. I see this every year. The Oscar blogosphere decides Sylvester Stallone is going to win—because they like him. How could Lady Gaga lose Best Song? They’ll say. Be careful with “sure things” that are wholly made up. This year, I wonder, for example, if they illuminati has overstated the love for Moonlight and underappreciated other things.

Rule No. 3 Don’t Sweat the Surprises. You’re never really going to guess right that Ex Machina wins Visual Effects or Girl With Dragon Tattoo Best Editing. Don’t try to. If you go out on too many limbs, you’ll do poorly. Be careful with which ones you pick.

Beyond those general rules, here are the questions you’ll have to ask yourself this year.

Question 1: How strong is La La Land?. This is the key question of the night. Does it win everything? Twelve Oscars and breaks the record? Even silly things like Costumes and Sound Effects (LOL!!!)? Or is it a strong but nuanced sweep. Tough. You’ll see from the below that I’m leaning towards nuanced and not absolute but I’m also not the movie’s biggest champion. Be careful with following my bias.

Question 2: Which of the beloved movies goes home empty?. This is like a math problem. Hidden Figures is well liked, but it can realistically only win Best Adapted Screenplay. If it steals that from Moonlight and Lion, what about those two? One of them can win Supporting Actor and the other Cinematography, I suppose, but La La Land seems impossible to defeat in that race. So maybe don’t pick Hidden Figures. But it still doesn’t tell you what award those other two will win. Fences won’t go away with nil thanks to Viola, and Hacksaw likely does win either Sound or Editing, with maybe one of the other going to Arrival. Hell or High Water seems in most peril of pulling up a goose egg, and that also seems impossible. Am I nuts to think Jeff Bridges has a chance?

Question 3: How political are we going to get? After the controversial Executive Order on immigrants, can Iran’s The Salesman really oust the critical favorite from Germany, Toni Erdmann? Will they stick with undoing the #OscarsSoWhite damage not just by nominating black actors but also by giving it to Denzel over Casey? Will Zootopia withstand Kubo’s furious attack because of its message of diversity and inclusion? Will this affect Ali in some way?

These are some of the questions you’ll have to decide on if you’re going to have a successful night. As usual, I feel queasy about a lot of this, and I’m indicating as much when that is the case. I would stake my prognosticator reputation on the ones with “high” degree of confidence, but anything else is educated guesses up for grabs.

Take a look and have at it, mock me when I mess it all up!
Note: Best Actor pick changed from Affleck to Denzel Washington at 1:30 E.T. Sunday

Final Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards
	J. Don Birnam Final Prediction	Could Also Win	Consensus Pick	Guild Winner	Degree of Confidence
Best Picture	La La Land	N/A	La La Land	La La Land (PGA)	High
Best Director	Damien Chazelle (La La Land)	N/A	Damien Chazelle	Damien Chazelle (DGA)	High
Best Actor	Denzel Washington (Fences)	Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)	Denzel Washington	Denzel Washington (SAG)	Low
Best Actress	Emma Stone (La La Land)	N/A	Emma Stone	Emma Stone	High
Best Supporting Actor	Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)	Dev Patel (Lion); Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)	Mahershala Ali	Mahershala Ali (SAG)	Low
Best Supporting Actress	Viola Davis (Fences)	N/A	Viola Davis	Viola Davis	High
Best Original Screenplay	Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)	Damien Chazelle (La La Land)	Manchester by the Sea	Arrival (WGA)	Medium
Best Adapted Screenplay	Barry Jenkings (Moonlight)	Arrival; Lion	Moonlight	Moonlight	Low
Best Film Editing	La La Land	Hacksaw Ridge	La La Land	Arrival & La La Land	Medium
Best Cinematography	La La Land	Moonlight; Lion	La La Land	Lion	Medium
Best Production Design	Fantastic Beasts	La La Land	La La Land	La La Land & Passengers	Low
Best Costumes	La La Land	Jackie	La La Land	La La Land	Low
Best Make-Up	Star Trek	Suicide Squad	Star Trek	Star Trek; Suicide Squad	Medium
Best Visual Effects	The Jungle Book	Doctor Strange; Rogue One	The Jungle Book	The Jungle Book	Medium
Best Sound Mixing	La La Land	Hacksaw Ridge	La La Land	La La Land	High
Best Sound Editing	Hacksaw Ridge	La La Land; Arrival	Hacksaw Ridge	Hacksaw Ridge	Low
Best Original Score	La La Land	N/A	La La Land	N/A	High
Best Original Song	City of Stars (La La Land)	How Far I'll Go (Moana)	City of Stars	N/A	High
Best Foreign Language Film	Toni Erdmann (Germany)	The Salesman (Iran)	The Salesman	N/A	Medium
Best Animated Feature	Zootopia	Kubo and the Two Strings	Zootopia	Zootopia	Medium
Best Documentary	O.J. Made in America	13th	O.J. Made in America	N/A	High
Best Documentary Short	Joe's Violin	The White Helmets	Joe's Violin	N/A	Medium
Best Live Action Short	La Femme et le TGV	Ennemis Interieurs	Ennemis Interieurs	N/A	Medium
Best Animated Short	Borrowed Time	Piper	Piper	N/A	Low