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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 28, 2017

Aw, he seems so nice.

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Split

M. Night Shyamalan’s redemption is nearly complete as Split easily wins a second weekend at the box office with $7.9 million, a 46% decline from last Friday. It’s at $59 million after eight days and is a strong candidate to be the first 2017 release to hit $100 million. Not bad for a reported budget of less than $10 million. This weekend, Split looks to come in with a weekend of $23.8 million.

A Dog's Purpose

A Dog’s Purpose is the top opener on Friday with $5.3 million. It’s unclear how much box office was lost by the alleged animal abuse that took place on set, though you can make the argument the controversy cost it the top spot for the weekend. It will probably still play well to families, though the lousy reviews keep it from topping Split on the weekend. Look for A Dog’s Purpose to finish with $17.5 million on the weekend.




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Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

The sixth (and apparently final) Resident Evil film is timed in nicely with the release of Resident Evil 7 video game, but apparently all the franchise’s fans were playing that instead of buying tickets as The Final Chapter earns $5.1 million on Friday. Over 15 years, the movie franchise has been surprisingly resilient, with all but the first opening to over $20 million (even if the films collapsed from there, such as 2012’s Retribution, which opened to $21 million and finished with $42.3 million). But it appears to end with a thud and the lowest opening weekend of the six films. Should The Final Chapter follow a similar weekend trajectory as past films, and there’s no reason to think it won’t, that sends Resident Evil to a weekend of just $12.8 million.

Oscar Watch

Despite only two films in wide release that garnered notable Oscar nominations, that’s more than we usually have this time of year. First, Hidden Figures continues its surprising run with $3.7 million on Friday, down just 14% from last Friday. With a Best Picture nomination and nominations for Octavia Spencer and Adapted Screenplay, it’s going to cross the $100 million mark on Sunday, which is a great feat. It’s looking at a $13.4 million weekend, and there’s still a fair amount of life left in it.

La La Land, tying the record with 14 nominations, finally hits ultra wide release, going from 1,865 theaters to 3,136 this weekend, and increases 42% from last Friday to $3.4 million. It’s also going to pass $100 million this weekend, albeit one day sooner than Hidden Figures. If it can sustain the momentum through the month, it’s a contender for $200 million should it clean up on Oscar night as expected. La La Land is headed to a weekend total of $11.6 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Split 23.8
2 A Dog's Purpose 17.5
3 Hidden Figures 13.4
4 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter 12.8
5 La La Land 11.6
6 Sing 6.2
7 xXx: Return of Xander Cage 6.1
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5.0
9 Monster Trucks 3.9
10 Gold 3.2

     


 
 

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