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The 12 Days of Box Office: Day 11

By David Mumpower

January 2, 2017

Sometimes a Stormtrooper just wants to go for a little swim.

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The 12 Days of Box Office hasn't reached the finish line yet, but it's definitely in the home stretch. Today, January 2nd, is the official holiday (for most), which means that everyone is a few hours of sleep from getting back to their daily routine. Tomorrow's update will include the final great day of box office. For now, we're discussing the weekend "actuals," which are in reality modified estimates for Saturday and Sunday. We won't know true actuals for several more days.

Still, this has been an uneventful 12 days, especially relative to last year's record-shattering pace of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. We still have plenty to discuss today, tomorrow and Wednesday, the final day of our discussion. You'll get a baker's dozen this year.

We now come to the broken record of our show, which is that Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It finished in first place on...pick any day of its release so far. Sunday's updated estimate for Rogue One flatlined. Its estimate for today (Monday, January 2nd) is $14.8 million. This lowers its four-day estimate slightly to $64.2 million, bringing its tally through the end of the holiday season up to $439.7 million. After only 18 days in release, it is already the 13th largest movie of all-time, passing ET: The Extra-Terrestrial. Shot for $200 million, and with international box office of an additional $350 million, Rogue One stands as one of the most profitable films of the 21st century. In a year of triumphs for Disney, it's going to stand above as the ultimate breadwinner.

The other huge success story of the season is of course Sing, the latest animated offering from the people who brought Minions into your lives. Their estimate for Monday actually reads like a mistake, because it's the same amount as Sunday - $13.8 million. While Universal is phoning in their attempts at estimates today, Sing's $180 million in 13 days is a staggering box office achievement.

We'll go ahead and run through the rest of the box office top five quickly since it's similar to yesterday. Sony is now reporting $5.9 million for Passengers on Sunday and $4.6 million on Monday. Moana has altered its Sunday and Monday estimates to $3.5 million and $3.3 million. Finally, Fox has Why Him? at $4 million and $2.9 million on Monday. If you're wondering why Moana and Sing have projected better box office holdovers on Monday than the more adult films, that's not an accident. Parents can still take their kids to matinees on Monday afternoon, but the evening shows now precede work days.




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Sixth and seventh place go to a couple of awards contenders. La La Land grossed $3.3 million on Sunday and has an estimate of $2.8 million on Monday, giving it a running total of $37 million. Paramount's estimates for Fences are $3.4 million on Sunday followed by $2.7 million today. Its box office actually reinforces how well La La Land is doing. Fences has grossed $32.4 million after 18 days, eight of which were wide release. Fences currently has 2,301 play dates. La La Land has only done 750 so far. In other words, it's gotten a lot more out of a lot less... and Fences has done quite well.

A bomb, a blockbuster and an indie sensation round out the top 10. Assassin's Creed has estimates of $3.3 million for Sunday and $2.3 million for Monday, bringing its pathetic overall take to $41.9 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them probably isn't the sublime draw that Warner Bros. projected, but another $1.4 million on Sunday and $1.3 million on Monday brings its total to up to $225.4 million domestically in addition to $551 million overseas. Finally, the grimmest tale known to man, Manchester by the Sea, earned $1.4 million on Sunday and $1.2 million on Monday, giving it $29.7 million. For a film with an $8.5 million budget, it's done quite well, and I take this opportunity to recommend Lonergan's previous film You Can Count on Me. Manchester by the Sea has dropped from 1,213 to 1,206 play dates, indicating that it's going to start losing momentum from here.

Tomorrow's update will be deadly dull, since it will feature adjustments to the estimates listed about, but I plan to do the oft-promised but rarely delivered post-12 Days of Box Office regression analysis later this week. I hope everyone had the happiest of holidays and enjoys a wonderful 2017.


     


 
 

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