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Hello and welcome to the *mumbles a shockingly large number* edition of the Twelve Days of Box Office. Okay, if you really care, we’re up to 16 years now, which means that in 2018, this annual column will be old enough to vote. My message to the loyal BOP readers who have read this article going all the way back to the first year is…try not to think about the age of it too much. And remember, as long as your retirement home has internet access, everything’s fine.

Anyway, let’s go over the basics for those of you that are new to the process. This time of year is critical to the bottom line of Hollywood. Oh, movie studios will find a way to make phantom claims about record revenue, just as they always do, but the box office period around December 20th – January 3rd is the biggest of the year. Every major title in release will perform as if it’s either Friday or Saturday. That’s because the only true component of theater attendance that matters is availability. When potential movie-goers have the free time to watch a film in a theater, they enjoy the activity.

The only fluctuation is in calendar configuration. That’s because some national holidays fall on a set day of the week each year, but Christmas and New Year’s Day do not. The result of this scheduling quirk is that some days are better than others with regards to the overall box office performance of the top 10/12. And some years have such atrocious calendar configurations that all titles in release wind up artificially deflated in box office.

Since this is 2016, the year America chose dystopia, you can guess how this calendar configuration stacks up.

As I’ve said many times before, the worst thing that can happen is holidays like July 4th, Christmas Eve, and New Year’s Eve to fall on Saturday. That’s because these holidays are ones where consumers tend to go out, travel, or spend time with their families. 2016 is a double-whammy in that most December releases are disappointing to begin with, and now they’re going to suffer through a horrific Saturday. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

What’s important for now is that the calendar configuration abbreviates the box office windfall for all titles in release. Most companies will give employees the choice of either Friday or Monday as their vacation day. That’s good for this week, but it means that after January 2nd, the world goes right back to the way it was. Box office for that Monday will be solid, but it won’t seem as otherworldly since it’s a work night. In other words, studios enjoy fewer days of holiday inflation this year. That’s going to leave a mark.

Due to the compressed holiday season, the pre-Christmas money train isn’t as lucrative. Each extra inflationary day is found money to studios, and they’re missing out on as many as three this cycle. Still, the underlying premise applies. Everything in release is getting a bump right now.

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