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Black Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 26, 2016

Who needs earth under your feet when you have a demigod as a friend?

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It's a Black Friday at the box office as well as at the mall, with the latest Disney animated release leading the way into December.

Moana

Disney’s latest Thanksgiving release is the big winner on the holiday weekend, earning $21.8 million on Black Friday after earning $25.6 million over Wednesday and Thursday. Looking at 2013’s Frozen, which despite earning $400 million is a better opening weekend comparison than you think because it ended up being one of the leggiest films of the last few years (it didn’t hit $200 million until Christmas Eve, which makes its total even more stunning), that earned $26.8 million on Black Friday after earning $26.1 million in its first two days, and finished with a $67.3 million weekend and $93.5 million in five days.

Moana is a tick or two below those figures at this point, but it’s still headed for a strong weekend and the thing to watch (much like with Frozen) is if it can leg it out to climb aboard the Christmas holiday box office money train. Overwhelmingly positive reviews and original music by Lin-Manuel Miranda (and I suppose the presence of The Rock as well) can only help its cause. This weekend, look for a weekend of $54.7 million, giving it $80.3 million over five days.

Allied

Brad Pitt’s World War II romance epic could only bring in $4.9 million on Friday after earning $5.3 million in its first two days of release. Pitt’s name (not that he’s ever been a huge box office draw) was not enough to bring in the older audiences who weren’t interested in Moana or Fantastic Beasts (or even Doctor Strange, which still beat Allied on Friday), so this one might be headed for a quick trip out of theaters after a disappointing opening. Allied is looking at a weekend of $12.7 million and $18 million in five days.




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Bad Santa 2

The far too late sequel nobody was clamoring for earned $2.3 million on Friday, with an additional $2.9 million coming on Wednesday and Thursday. The 2003 original managed $60 million by the end of its run, also propped up by a few extra dollars earned over Christmas. Bad Santa 2 probably doesn’t have a strong enough start to make it that far (the first movie earned $12.2 million for the weekend and $16.8 million in five days, with a $4.6 million Black Friday), so this is going to be a one and done weekend for Bad Santa 2. Look for a weekend of $6.1 million and $9 million in five days.

Rules Don't Apply

The biggest turkey of the weekend, Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply, opened in 2,382 theaters and made $600,000 on Black Friday, with another $600,000 coming on Wednesday and Thursday. Yikes. It’s going to end up with $1.6 for the weekend and $2.2 million in five days, and then you’ll never hear from it again after this.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

It’s a Black Friday boosted $18.5 million on Friday for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, a decline of 37.6% from last Friday. Add in another $20.6 million earned over Wednesday and Thursday, and it’s now earned $129.6 million in just eight days in theaters, which is pretty good after a $74.4 million opening weekend. The Harry Potter spinoff might have some life in it beyond the opening weekend, as it's looking at a weekend of $46.2 million, which is a solid second place for the Thanksgiving weekend, as we turn the calendar to December.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Moana 67.3
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 46.2
3 Doctor Strange 14.6
4 Allied 12.7
5 Arrival 12.1
6 Trolls 12.1
7 Almost Christmas 6.2
8 Bad Santa 2 6.1
9 Hacksaw Ridge 5.9
10 The Edge of Seventeen 2.8

     


 
 

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