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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

August 27, 2016

Don't breathe. Don't talk. Some people are so bossy.

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Don't Breathe

Almost out of nowhere, we’ve got a big horror breakout in the form of Don’t Breathe, which earned $10 million on Friday - which, conveniently, is what it cost to make. In what used to be a much more frequent occurrence, this is the first horror breakout of the year and you have to credit the timing of a weak box office top ten as well as the rave reviews (87% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes) for this one. It’s likely headed for a very standard horror/thriller weekend multiplier, which is to say, not a good one, but it’s still going to manage a weekend of $23.7 million.

Mechanic: Resurrection

Jason Statham parlays his successful 2015 (where he joined the Fast and Furious franchise and got rave reviews for playing against type in Spy) into…a sequel to The Mechanic? Okay. The sequel, Mechanic: Resurrection, starts with just $2.5 million on Friday. The original was a January 2011 release that started with $3.6 million and had an $11.4 million weekend. It’s unsurprising the late August sequel couldn’t duplicate that performance. Based on the performance of The Mechanic overseas, this one’s for international audiences. For the weekend, give Resurrection a weekend of $6.7 million.




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Notable Holdovers

After three weekends at the top, Suicide Squad gives way to Don’t Breathe, dropping 45% to $3.3 million and giving it $274.1 million. $300 million is still in reach, but it’s going to be really close. It’s looking at another $11 million for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Ben-Hur is one of the biggest flops of the year, dropping 68% from last Friday to $1.3 million and squeaking in 10th place on Friday. Don’t Breathe’s opening weekend could be bigger than Ben-Hur’s entire domestic run. We’ll stay with 10th place and $4 million on the weekend, but upstarts like Southside With You ($1 million in 813 theaters) and the expanding Hell or High Water (just about $1 million in 909 theaters) could sneak in if Ben-Hur doesn’t have a weekend recovery.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Don't Breathe 23.7
2 Suicide Squad 11.0
3 Sausage Party 6.8
4 Mechanic: Resurrection 6.7
5 Kubo and the Two Strings 6.4
6 Pete's Dragon 6.3
7 War Dogs 5.9
8 Bad Moms 5.2
9 Jason Bourne 4.9
10 Ben-Hur 4.0

     


 
 

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