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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

August 20, 2016

I look way too much like the Joker.

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The Summer of Meh continues as three newcomers fail to light up the box office, leaving a film in free fall at the top for a third weekend.

War Dogs

The top new release on Friday is War Dogs with $5.5 million, good for second place. While it’s a mediocre-to-bad weekend all around for the newcomers, this probably isn’t the film you were expecting to be here, so it’s still nice to be surprised once in a while. Credit Jonah Hill with some minor drawing power, though don’t expect legs from here. Look for a weekend of $15.4 million.

Ben-Hur

Probably the most sacrilegious remake of all-time disappoints with just $4.1 million on Friday. Perhaps they should have cast women in the lead roles. With over a $100 million budget, the Paramount and MGM film was aiming at both film buffs and the faith-based audience, and seemingly ended up with neither. 2014’s biblical epic Noah opened with $43.7 million after a $15.1 million Friday, a figure Ben-Hur won’t match in three days. It might play well with some older viewers over the rest of the weekend, but it won’t add much to the total. Give it a weekend of $12.7 million.




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Kubo and the Two Strings

The latest entry from Laika earns $4.1 million on Friday, which is okay but is a slight step back from their last effort, The Boxtrolls, which had a Friday of $4.9 million in September 2014. Kubo and the Two Strings will play well with families over the rest of the weekend, as The Boxtrolls managed a weekend multiplier of 3.5 for a $17.2 million weekend, though the Japanese aspect of the film may frighten some away. It should come in with about $14 million on the weekend.

Suicide Squad

Despite another free fall, it looks like a third weekend at the top for Suicide Squad, which is more than Batman v. Superman can say. It drops another 54% to earn $6 million, giving it $247.6 million to date, and the idea of $300 million is starting to slip away. Based on its performance last weekend, Suicide Squad will open up some space between it and War Dogs, winning a third weekend with $19.9 million.

Notable Holdovers

Of last week’s openers, Sausage Party plunges 63% to $4.9 million, Pete’s Dragon dips 55% to $3.1 million and Florence Foster Jenkins drops 41% to $1.2 million. None of these declines should be surprising. It’ll be second weekends of $14.8 million, $10.2 million and $3.9 million, respectively.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Suicide Squad 19.9
2 War Dogs 15.4
3 Sausage Party 14.8
4 Kubo and the Two Strings 14.0
5 Ben-Hur 12.7
6 Pete's Dragon 10.2
7 Bad Moms 7.8
8 Jason Bourne 7.7
9 The Secret Life of Pets 5.3
10 Florence Foster Jenkins 3.9

     


 
 

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