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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 25, 2016

You are number one.

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Finding Dory

After last weekend’s record opening, there’s no letdown in week two for Finding Dory, with another $23.2 million on Friday, down 57.6% from its first day. While the Friday-to-Friday decline seems high, it will more than make up for that over the rest of the weekend, as after you get the initial opening weekend rush factor that Pixar films experience out of the way, they become textbook family films over subsequent weekends. Last year’s Inside Out saw a 2.64 multiplier on its opening weekend, while in the second weekend it improved to a 3.49, turning a Friday-to-Friday drop of 56% into a weekend decline of 42%. After just eight days, Finding Dory has an astounding $236.5 million and will be most of the way to $300 million by the end of the weekend, becoming the sixth 2016 film to cross that mark midweek. For its second weekend, look for Finding Dory to earn $78.8 million.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Twenty years ago, Independence Day had an opening weekend of $50.2 million, with $96.1 million in its extended holiday opening weekend, both records at the time. The sequel, Independence Day: Resurgence…will not match those figures. It’s a Friday take of $16.8 million for Resurgence, which includes about $4 million on Thursday. With the success of Finding Dory, it was easy to forget for a moment that we’re now squarely in the Summer of Meh, and for the most part it’s just not been a good year to be a sequel. We’ve long moved on from monument porn, and the awful reviews aren’t helping much either. It’s going to earn about $40 million on the weekend, and I don’t like its chances at earning $100 million domestically.




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The Shallows

Minimalist thriller The Shallows is a Friday surprise, earning a solid $6.8 million. The best reviewed wide release on the weekend by a couple of touchdowns, The Shallows seemingly benefited from being the anti-Independence Day. Even with a below average multiplier, The Shallows is looking at a weekend of $17 million, which conveniently happens to be its production budget.

Free State of Jones

Matthew McConaughey’s Civil War historical epic is a box office non-factor, with just $2.6 million on Friday. McConaughey has never really been a huge box office draw and asking him to carry the load in the type of film that’s a tough sell anyway is asking for it. The Free State of Jones is looking at a weekend of under $8 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Finding Dory 78.8
2 Independence Day: Resurgence 39.8
3 Central Intelligence 17.1
4 The Shallows 17.0
5 Free State of Jones 7.9
6 The Conjuring 2 7.1
7 Now You See Me 2 5.5
8 X-Men: Apocalypse 2.7
9 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 2.2
10 Alice Through the Looking Glass 1.8

     


 
 

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