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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 11, 2016

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The Summer of Meh continues at the box office as two sequels and an adaptation nobody knew they wanted arrive this weekend.

The Conjuring 2

In a rarity for a non-animated, non-Marvel property sequel this year, The Conjuring 2 does well on Friday, easily leading Friday with $16.4 million. This is on pace with the July 2013 opening day of the first Conjuring, which earned $16.9 million on its way to a $41.8 million weekend. Should the sequel have the same multiplier as the Conjuring, that’s a $40.4 million weekend. I’d give it a very slight nudge downward for the sequel factor, but to expect an estimate of $40 million on the weekend, later adjusted down below that when the actual numbers come in.

Warcraft

The Warcraft adaptation doesn’t completely tank on Friday, with $10.7 million on Friday. The widest of the weekend’s new releases, that’s still not a very good DPS (Dollars Per Screen). While it’s a runaway hit in China, the very poor reviews may not quite heal the relationship viewers have with the budding franchise, since an expansion pack sequel seems likely thanks to all the loot from international earnings. As probably the weakest theatrical experience of the weekend, expect a bigger Friday night rush factor (since Now You See Me 2 skews a little older) and thus a lower weekend multiplier. Warcraft will earn 27.8 million gold $27.8 million on the weekend.




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Now You See Me 2

The magic sequel earns $8.4 million on Friday, which is a decline from the $10 million earned by Now You See Me in June 2013. I blame the drop on not calling the movie Now You Don’t. It’s not going to match the $29.3 million earned by the original entry, but there’s still a moral victory in opening to over $20 million given how this year has gone for sequels. Now You See Me 2 looks to take in $24.5 million on the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows dives 68% from last Friday to just $4 million. It does cross the $50 million mark in the process, which still doesn’t match the opening weekend of the last film ($65.5 million). Given what it is, it’ll do pretty well over Saturday and Sunday, but that’s still a drop to $14.2 million for a second weekend.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Conjuring 2 40.0
2 Warcraft 27.8
3 Now You See Me 2 24.5
4 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 14.2
5 Me Before You 9.1
6 X-Men: Apocalypse 8.2
7 The Angry Birds Movie 7.1
8 Alice Through the Looking Glass 5.8
9 Captain America: Civil War 4.3
10 The Jungle Book 2.9

     


 
 

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