Weekend Forecast for May 27-30, 2016
By Reagen Sulewski
May 27, 2016
In March of 2010, Tim Burton technicolor barfed a live-action Alice in Wonderland movie out into the world and managed, seriously, no foolin', a billion dollars' worth of worldwide box office – I know – I'll wait while you re-acclimatize yourself to that fact ... OK, ready again? We were kind of at peak-Johnny Depp at that time, and while that's more than enough justification to make a sequel from a business standpoint, I'd feel pretty confident in offering a bounty for anyone that still professes to like that film.
But again, billion dollars, so here we go with Alice Through The Looking Glass, continuing on with the Lewis Carroll stories as Mia Wasikowska returns as the title character, back in Wonderland to save the Mad Hatter from the Red Queen and something something off with their heads. I would be literally astonished to find anyone who cared what this film is actually about, as even in the most generous analysis, it's a film that's predicated on its Technicolor visuals and psychedelic effects that punch you in the face shouting “Whimsy! Whimsy! Whimsy!” This might be notable mostly for being Alan Rickman's last big screen appearance (albeit under a CGI sheen). With America's on-again, off-again love affair with Johnny Depp back in the “off” position, I see a steep decline in the box office take of this sequel, with an opening weekend falling into the $55 million range for its first four days.
The films that may benefit the most from the holiday frame are those released last weekend, as they get something of a pass on their lackluster opening weekends. The Angry Birds Movie or: Sony Stops Trying opened to $32 million on the strength (?) of being from the most popular mobile game of six years ago (coming in 2022, Candy Crush: The Movie, and you think I'm kidding but guess what). Family films typically fare the best on this long weekend, as there's extra time to check out multiple movies. This should result in a $24 million weekend here.
Captain America: Civil War will make it a very Marvel holiday as it sticks around for a solid fourth place finish with around $20 million over the holiday, bringing it ever close to $400 million domestic. In one of those troublesome developments for summer 2016, another questionably derived sequel, Neighbors 2, opened to less than half its original start, with only $21 million. Re-hash fatigue, I'm telling you. It's a thing. Give it $13 million over the holiday.
Further down the list we have The Nice Guys, which of all the Shane Black movies in existence is definitely the Shane Blackiest. The '70s LA buddy cop noir comedy awesomeness genre film (oh, it's a thing) opened to a modest $11 million but has a chance for some legs. I'd expect about $8 million this holiday frame, though. The Jungle Book may leapfrog this a little for the above mentioned family film reasons, pulling in about $9 million.
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Forecast: Weekend of May 27-30, 2016
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
X-Men: Apocalypse
|
4,148
|
New
|
82.4
|
|
2
|
Alice Through The Looking Glass
|
3,763
|
New
|
55.3
|
|
3
|
The Angry Birds Movie
|
3,932
|
No change
|
24.7
|
|
4
|
Captain America 3: Civil War
|
3,395
|
-831
|
19.9
|
|
5
|
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
|
3,416
|
+32
|
13.1
|
|
6
|
The Jungle Book
|
2,523
|
-937
|
9.2
|
|
7
|
The Nice Guys
|
2,865
|
No change
|
7.9
|
|
8
|
Money Monster
|
2,315
|
-789
|
4.5
|
|
9
|
The Darkness
|
1,004
|
-765
|
2.0
|
|
10
|
Zooptopia
|
572
|
-805
|
1.0
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
|
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