Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 7, 2016

I think he's been quipped out.

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Civil War spoiler alert: The North wins the war and Atlanta is razed to the ground.

Captain America: Civil War

The third Captain America movie (which sorta kinda but not really doubles as the third Avengers movie) took in a strong $75.2 million on Friday, with $25 million of that coming from Thursday night showings. This is fantastic, considering Winter Solider opened two years ago to $95 million, a figure Civil War will have passed by the time you read this. The slight problem comes from the Expectation Game. Civil War felt like it was a lock to be the fourth member of the $200 million opening club. It’s got all of the Avengers, earned terrific reviews, is following Winter Solider, which is considered one of the best movies in the Marvel Comic Universe, and it isn’t Batman v. Superman. There is literally nothing negative to report about the opening day box office of Civil War. It’s the eighth largest single day of all time. But in this era of the mega-opening, this sure feels like a letdown when you’re looking for it to duplicate the opening weekend of Age of Ultron.

Anyway, looking at Winter Soldier, that movie’s Friday was $37 million with $10.2 million of that from Thursday showings. It finished the opening weekend with $95 million. That’s a 2.56 multiplier when you include Thursday’s number and a 3.16 when you don’t. If Civil War duplicates that feat, it’s somewhere between $183 million and $192 million. I will remind you for the third time that Winter Solider opened to $95 million. Sequels, especially when going from the second movie to the third movie, aren’t supposed to earn nearly $100 million more than the previous film on opening weekend. Civil War’s opening weekend will be a very strong $185 million.


Notable Holdovers

After three weeks at the top, The Jungle Book drops 45% from last Friday to add another $5.6 million, sending it to $268.8 million. $300 million is within reach, perhaps as soon as midweek, but definitely by next weekend. It’ll land with a still impressive fourth weekend of $24.2 million.

The top opener last weekend, Key and Peele’s Keanu, establishes itself as a future cult film by plummeting 73% from last Friday to just $925,000. Seriously, The Huntsman: Winter’s War made more on Friday. Keanu will end up with around $3 million on the weekend.

Lastly, we point and laugh at Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice one final time. Clinging to tenth place on Friday with $219,000, it now stands at $325.6 million. Let us count the days until Civil War crosses that figure.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Captain America: Civil War 185.0
2 The Jungle Book 24.2
3 Mother's Day 6.1
4 The Huntsman: Winter's War 3.4
5 Keanu 2.9
6 Zootopia 2.3
7 Barbershop: The Next Cut 2.2
8 The Boss 1.6
9 Ratchet & Clank 1.1
10 Batman v Supeman: Dawn of Justice 1.0



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