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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 30, 2016

Soon to be an attraction at Walt Disney World, we're sure.

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The Jungle Book

It’s an easy third weekend in first place for The Jungle Book as the 800-lb. gorilla that is Civil War opens next week. The Disney hit earned $10.2 million on Friday as it blew past $200 million midweek and will be at or around $250 million by the end of the weekend, and is a lock to be the fourth $300 million film of 2016. The Friday decline of 37.6% is strong, and Jungle Book’s big weekends so far have been powered by a big Saturday expansion. This weekend will be no exception. It’s on track for a third weekend of $38.1 million.

Keanu

The first feature film starring sketch comedy duo Key & Peele is the top new opener on Friday, but that’s a small consolation as it only earned $3.4 million. Perhaps a little too high concept a comedy, or perhaps once again showing that it’s really hard to get people to pay for something they used to get for free, as there are plenty of clips and full episodes online.

*goes down K&P rabbit hole for an hour or so*

Uh, anyway, with this opening and despite very positive reviews, Keanu is looking likely to end up a cult classic on the streaming services as the best it could hope for on the weekend is a total of $10 million.




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Mother's Day

The latest ensemble cast film by Garry Marshall (next up: Arbor Day!) sees just $2.7 million on Friday, which isn’t very good. It might get a slight bump over the weekend and I’m morbidly curious to see its box office earnings a week from Sunday, to see if there’s any sort of noticeable bump on Mother’s Day proper. My guess is probably not since there wasn’t much of one for New Year’s Eve, but we’ll see. This weekend, however, Mother’s Day is looking at a weekend of $8.3 million.

Ratchet and Clank

The video game adaptation (not the only one of 2016) crashes and burns with $1.4 million on Friday. While timed with an update of the original game in the franchise, that one came out in 2002. I’d say the window of opportunity to cash in on the PlayStation series closed several years ago, and this is the result of releasing it now. So much for the Banjo-Kazooie movie. Competing for family dollars with The Jungle Book and even Zootopia to an extent, it’s going to finish with $4.9 million on the weekend.

The Huntsman: Winter's War

The decidedly unnecessary sequel to Snow White and the Huntsman collapses 63.5% from last Friday to just $2.6 million. Yes, yes, foreign grosses blah blah blah but what’s important here is that the first film earned $155 million domestically and this one won’t make $50 million. That’s…not good. Look for a second weekend. of $7.8 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Jungle Book 38.1
2 Keanu 10.0
3 Mother's Day 8.3
4 The Huntsman: Winter's War 7.8
5 Barbershop: The Next Cut 5.4
6 Ratchet and Clank 4.9
7 Zootopia 4.6
8 The Boss 3.8
9 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 3.4
10 Criminal 1.2

     


 
 

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