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Weekend Forecast for April 8-10, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

April 8, 2016

I think that's probably too many dollar signs for this weekend's box office.

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Even with a $166 million weekend, a film is eventually going to fall out of the top spot of the box office. That Batman v Superman would fall out of first place this soon, and to the film that it's likely to lose to this weekend is a bit of a surprise.

Melissa McCarthy returns to big screens as one of the biggest comedy stars in the world, male or female, in The Boss, an odds-on favorite to best the rapidly-collapsing superhero team-up this weekend. McCarthy plays a Trump-like figure, busted down to nothing after an insider-trading charge, who then proceeds to invade the household of one of her long-suffering former employees. Her business muscles can't stop flexing and she takes over her employee's (Kristen Bell) daughter's girl scout troop, hoping to ride the cookie train back to billions.

This is, of course, essentially a straight copy of the classic Simpsons episode The Old Man and the Lisa, but if you're going to steal, may as well steal from the best, and it's not as if The Simpsons created all the best ideas they used. Directed by her husband Ben Falcone in the alternating pattern McCarthy seems to have between him and Paul Feig, it's a rather brassy and aggressive looking comedy, of the “punch you in the mouth until you laugh or cry, either way we're good” school. It is, in some ways, almost perfectly timed as America realizes once again how much it hate buffoonish rich people, but unfortunate in that it is so broadly pitched as to scare off just those people primed to see a skewering of the mega-rich.

Last summer's Spy was a solid hit for McCarthy and seemed better attuned to her appeal, whereas The Boss looks a lot more mean-spirited. That's worked for her in the past, with both Tammy and Identity Thief, but there's a limit to how many times this works for audiences. Combine this with absolutely dismal reviews and it's going to put a bit of a cap on its opening weekend, to the tune of around $22 million.

A movie that's equal parts innovative and “Why?”, Hardcore Henry promises us what amounts to the first First Person Shooter: The Movie. Hardcore Henry puts us into the perspective of our titular but mute protagonist as he is sent on a mission to rescue his wife, after being resurrected from death and modified in many ways, effectively making him a cyborg. And then the movie puts him through a whole bunch of crazy crap that'll almost certainly give you motion sickness and/or have you reaching for a non-existent controller.




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Directed by Russian newcomer Ilya Naishuller and with notable appearances from NPCs Tim Roth and Sharlto Copley, it's a gimmicky movie in the extreme, and likely to be as polarizing as anything directed by Lars von Trier. Action is largely a dead genre these days unless it's tied up in franchise garb, and while this might inspire a few looky-loos, it's equally likely to push people away, as its disorienting commercials don't present an accessible or watchable film. I'd expect just $8 million this weekend.

Opening in national release is Demolition, starring Jake Gyllenhaal as an investment banker struggling with the death of his wife the way one does – by writing letters to the company that runs the vending machines in the hospital where she was taken after her car accident. Hello, '90s screenplay workshop writers!

Directed by Jean-Marc Vallee of The Dallas Buyers Club, it's a non-stop laugh-a-minute film about loss and recovery, but released in just under 900 venues, it's at best a minor player in the week's box office, with about $3 million.

After a record-setting $166 million opening, Batman v Superman v Audiences fell an astounding 69 percent in its second weekend, which is big even for a tentpole film. The weekday drops keep coming, with at least 65 percent week-over-week giving it a gut punch and making it hard for the film to hit even $325 million after that massive opening weekend. It's still enough to continue with DC's plan to do battle with Marvel, but it's got to send people scurrying in WB's offices, worrying about how they might have hurt the brand. That Wonder Woman movie should still be fine, as it's one of the bright spots, but the Man of Steel 2 set has to be about as bright a place to work right now as Allegiant 2. While it might still hang on to the top spot if The Boss fails, I'd look for a third weekend of $20 million.

This might mean that it never passes Zootopia, which chugs along barely noticing that weekends pass. The Disney animated film fell only another 20 percent last weekend, and sits at $280 million right now. It should grab $15 million this frame.

Lastly, the Big Fat Greek Wedding sequel had an okay drop of just 37 percent in weekend two, but puts to rest any notions that it's going to match the run of the original. Give it $7 million on its way to about $70 million domestic.


Forecast: Weekend of April 8-10, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Boss 3,482 New 22.4
2 Batman v. Superman 4,102 -154 20.3
3 Zootopia 3,444 -254 15.6
4 Hardcore Henry 3,015 New 8.4
5 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 3,027 -152 7.7
6 God's Not Dead 2 2,379 -40 4.5
7 Miracles From Heaven 2,777 -378 4.4
8 The Divergant Series: Allegiant 2,503 -515 4.0
9 Demolition 854 New 3.2
10 10 Cloverfield Lane 1,886 -625 2.7

     


 
 

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