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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 5, 2016

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Zootopia

Disney’s Zootopia is the big winner on Friday with a massive $19.3 million on Friday. Between the outstanding reviews (98% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes, with only two hipsters among the 127 reviews currently in) and an underserved audience in families who in the last few months have been given such fare as Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip, Norm of the North and Kung Fu Panda 3, it’s no surprise an original animated entry of extremely high quality is opening well (despite not coming from Pixar). Given how well Zootopia will perform over Saturday and Sunday, it’s in for a huge weekend, and it’s looking at an outstanding $73.3 million for the weekend.

London Has Fallen

The action sequel only takes in $7.5 million on Friday, which is down from the $10 million Olympus Has Fallen opened with in 2013. Gerard Butler is not having a very good year between this and Gods of Egypt. While Olympus Has Fallen was considered a surprise when it managed $30.3 million over its opening weekend (and just missed cracking $100 million, finishing at $98.9 million), which is why we have this sequel, London Has Fallen will barely finish past the original’s opening. This weekend, give London Has Fallen $19.5 million.




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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

The war dramedy starring Tina Fey flops with just $2.4 million on Friday. It’s got mostly positive reviews and a good cast, but the problem seems to be both the selling of this film (war…comedy?) and the general question of “who exactly is this for?” It’s possible it gets some older viewers who are avoiding Zootopia and London Has Fallen, but the best Whiskey Tango Foxtrot could hope for on the weekend is $7 million.

Deadpool

After three weekends at the top, Deadpool is bumped to third but not before adding another $4.7 million on Friday, which puts it at $299.5 million, meaning it will have crossed $300 million by the time you read this. Only crazy people thought that was possible a month ago. The superhero blockbuster will have a fourth weekend of $16.4 million.

The Revenant

Finally, in the only very minor impact the Academy Awards had on the box office this weekend, Best Cinematography, Best Director and Best Actor winner The Revenant drops about 9% from last Friday with approximately $900,000, off slightly from last week’s take of $970,000. It saw a moderate weekday bump (it saw a week to week increase from Monday-Thursday this week despite losing 300 screens), but the film has effectively run its course at this point. Call it a weekend of $3.5 million as it looks to finish with about $180 million domestically.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Zootopia 73.3
2 London Has Fallen 19.5
3 Deadpool 16.4
4 Whiskey Tango Foxtrot 7.0
5 Gods of Egypt 4.1
6 The Revenant 3.5
7 Kung Fu Panda 3 3.5
8 Risen 3.4
9 Eddie the Eagle 2.6
10 The Witch 2.3

     


 
 

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