Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 30, 2016

Alternate movie title: Too Many Pandas!

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It's another January weekend at the box office, which means the news isn't that great for most movies.

Kung Fu Panda 3

It’s a start of $10.5 million for Kung Fu Panda 3, the latest from DreamWorks Animation. While down from the previous films, it’s not too bad, and breaking $10 million on Friday shows that kids and families haven’t completely forgotten about the franchise in the five years since Kung Fu Panda 2. That was a Memorial Day weekend opener in 2011 and had a first Friday of $13.1 million on its way to a $47.6 million weekend (and then a Monday that duplicated Friday). Kung Fu Panda 3 does not have that same luxury, but there’s little reason to think it won’t perform pretty well over the rest of the weekend. Look for a weekend of $36.7 million.


The Finest Hours

With only $3.3 million on Friday, it’s a disappointing weekend out there for all the openers not named Kung Fu Panda 3 (though the argument can certainly be made there). “Ooooh, weather!” just doesn’t sell tickets like it used to, especially when there aren’t any big names attached. Give it a total of $9.2 million for the weekend.

Fifty Shades of Black

Marlon Wayans’ Fifty Shades of Grey parody could only earn $2.2 million on Friday. That throws under A Haunted House 2 from two years ago, which started with $4 million on Friday (earning $8.8 million on the weekend and finishing with $7.3 million total). This will come and go just as quickly, so look for Fifty Shades of Black to manage just under $6 million on the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Kung Fu Panda 3 36.7
2 The Revenant 11.1
3 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 9.7
4 The Finest Hours 9.2
5 RIde Along 2 7.8
6 The Boy 6.7
7 Dirty Grandpa 6.2
8 Fifty Shades of Black 5.9
9 The 5th Wave 5.6
10 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 5.4



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