They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

Stage Three Begins With a Bang and a Whimper

By J. Don Birnam

January 18, 2016

Yep, we sure are all pretty white.

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The Whimper: Critics Capitulate to Academy

On Sunday, the BFCA completed the stunning embarrassment of itself that began when it belatedly added Star Wars to its Best Picture nominee list for the year and culminated in its half-hearted crowning of Spotlight its Best Picture, in one of the most flagrant attempts to kowtow to the Academy I have seen in years.

During the Critics’ Choice, the BFCA gave acting awards to Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, Sylvester Stallone, and Mark Rylance. The screenplay nods went to Spotlight and The Big Short. Every technical award with the exception of Cinematography (from Editing to Sound to Art Direction), went to Mad Max, with the Revenant’s Emmanuel Lubeszki lining himself up for a stunning third-in-a-row Oscar for Cinematography. The BFCA even named George Miller Best Director and gave Charlize Theron and Tom Hardy acting awards for action movies.

Indeed, looking at critical ratings of the two, it is impossible to not notice that Mad Max is squarely ahead of the Boston drama with the critics - both regional and aggregated awards scores show as much.

Why, then, it must be asked, did these group of critics anoint Spotlight their favorite movie of the year? It is hard to imagine, at this point in the race, that the lineup we saw with the Critics’ Choice (Spotlight/Miller/Leo/Brie/Sly/Vikander) won’t be the lineup we see at the Academy Awards. What is the relevance, then, of separate critics' awards?




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The answer for them is sadly nothing. With due respect to the individual members of the BFCA, of which I know several, the leadership of the society really screwed it up this year. Nothing is more of a turn off than trying too hard, or wanting it too much. We should have known something was up when the BFCA announced, after its nominations had been released, that they’d be adding Star Wars to the list of Best Picture nominees. The impact of such a movie, calculated at increasing ratings I suppose, is to forever destroy the credibility of the awards.

And nowhere is this lack of relevance reflected more than in the fact that neither DiCaprio nor Larson even bothered to show up to collect their prizes, and that the ensemble prize for Spotlight was picked up by Rachel McAdams. Prognosticators may scream when voting groups like SAG give you left-field nominations, but, hey, at least they’re voting for what they like rather than trying to copy the Academy.

What’s worse for groups like the BFCA or the Globes, is that they later look even more foolish when the Oscars go another way. The Globes, of course, had the added embarrassment of trying to make up for it by going with The Revenant this year, but those picks at least look somewhat fresh compared to what the Critics’ Choice just did. Again, I come down on the Academy’s side on this one - their picks, Birdman first and foremost, reflect an exasperation with this cheapening of their medium. Being an Academy member is not a full-time job - it is a membership in an honorary society that should be taken seriously, but voters have their separate, moviemaking careers (or retirement homes) to tend to. Critics, by contrast, rank and analyze movies for a living. They are in the business of telling people what to like. To eschew that obligation in favor of star-struck popularity is, no joke, a tragedy for them.

When you consider that the awards season has become a grueling marathon for its participants - the PGA awards are next week, the SAG after that, the DGA prizes follow, and the BAFTA are the weekend after that - it is simply inexcusable for voting bodies to behave like sheep to the, oh, ironically, sheepish Academy. If the whole industry becomes a dog chasing its own tail, then why will anyone bother tuning in?

Well, we will, anyway.


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