Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 9, 2016

Sure, the landscape looks lovely. But I think the world came to an end.

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The Revenant

Surprise! The Revenant ends up being the answer to the trivia question of the film that knocked Star Wars out of the top spot. With $14.3 million on Friday (a mere 9300% increase from last week), the Leonardo DiCaprio film (directed by reigning Best Director Alejandro G. Iñárritu), had built a tremendous amount of buzz over the last several weeks and was rewarded handsomely upon expanding to wide release. A lock for multiple Academy Award nominations (with DiCaprio considered extremely likely to finally win his first Best Actor Oscar after three previous nominations), The Revenant is going to be a very strong performer over the next couple of weeks, especially as we start handing out the awards people care about, like Golden Globes. An outstanding of $42.9 million awaits The Revenant.


Star Wars: The Force Awakens

After an incredible holiday run, becoming the biggest movie of all-time in North America, The Force Awakens has displayed a lot of mortality this week and on Friday adds another $10.7 million to its total, which now stands at $781.1 million. That’s down 69% from last Friday (which was New Year’s Day, to be fair as every leftover film is considerably down across the board), and means $1 billion domestically is off the table, but that’s a nitpick at this point. While the box office performance has been unprecedented and unpredictable, I’m expecting Star Wars to have a more reasonable trajectory from this weekend forward as it begins to wind down its historic run. This weekend, look for a $34.2 million total, sending it over $800 million by the end of the weekend.

The Forest

It wouldn’t be early January without a horror movie, and The Forest is the choice of 2016. It took in $4.9 million on Friday, which is actually just fine for what it is. Daddy’s Home should pass it over the rest of the weekend but it doesn’t completely embarrass itself with a weekend of $12.2 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Revenant 42.9
2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 34.2
3 Daddy's Home 12.4
4 The Forest 12.2
5 Sisters 8.4
6 The Hateful Eight 5.6
7 The Big Short 5.5
8 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip 3.8
9 Joy 3.5
10 Concussion 2.8



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