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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 21, 2015

Katniss, farewell.

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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

The finale of the Hunger Games series concludes with a $46 million Friday, with $16 million of that coming via Thursday night showings. That is, of course, pretty good in a vacuum. But it’s actually the lowest Friday figure of any film in the franchise. By a lot. Even The Hunger Games started with $67.2 million in March 2012, and last year’s Mockingjay Part 1 started with $55.1 million. As mentioned in this space a year ago, we wondered if there would be a rebound for Mockingjay Part 2 as the first movie merely sets up the action portion which is really what everyone wants to see. That didn't happen here. Was it because the book wasn't as well liked as the first two installments? But giving back nearly $10 million from a year ago shows that we’ve finally reach the limit for audiences to pay for two tickets for a single book (I’m still looking at you, Divergent.)

Should Mockingjay Part 2 follow the opening weekend trajectory of Part 1, and there’s nothing to indicate that it won’t, that’s a weekend of $101.4 million. This is probably the best that it could hope for, and while once again it is depressing to write that a film will be a disappointment and “only” earn $101 million on the weekend, that’s expectations (and perhaps drawing a line at greed) for you.

The Night Before

Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt only muster $3.6 million on Friday for their Christmas-themed The Night Before. That’s probably not a good enough start to keep it relevant through the holiday season. It might see a small bump next week, but not much. This weekend, look for $9.8 million.




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The Secret In Their Eyes

Despite the impressive cast, crime thriller The Secret in Their Eyes earned just $2.3 million on Friday. Given that Julia Roberts and Nicole Kidman haven’t been big at the box office in years, this was to be expected (and this wasn’t meant to be a blockbuster anyway). Give it a weekend of about $7 million and then it’ll be something you assume was direct-to-Netflix in a few months.

Spotlight

Leading Best Picture contender Spotlight, based on the investigative team behind the Boston Globe’s 2002 report of a Catholic Church abuse scandal in Massachusetts, moves to 598 theaters and earns $1 million on Friday. A film to watch over the next several weeks as the Oscar race begins to take shape, a weekend of $3.2 million is in store as it looks for future expansion.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 101.4
2 Spectre 14.3
3 The Peanuts Movie 12.4
4 The Night Before 9.8
5 The Secret in Their Eyes 7.0
6 The Martian 3.5
7 Love the Coopers 3.4
8 Spotlight 3.2
9 The 33 2.1
10 Bridge of Spies 1.8

     


 
 

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