Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 24, 2015

It's lonely at the top.

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Despite four new wide releases and a notable expansion, this weekend may go down as one of the worst in box office history.

The Last Witch Hunter

Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter is the best of the new wide releases, and yet only takes third on Friday with $3.8 million. That sound you heard was Diesel signing on for several more Fast and Furious movies. Based on a D&D character he had (no, seriously), the best The Last Witch Hunter can hope for is a weekend of $10.2 million.

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension

The sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, The Ghost Dimension earned $3.3 million on Friday. It’s fallen quickly from the heights of the first few films in the franchise, where the first film earned $107 million (on a reported $450,000 budget) and then an opening weekend of $52.5 million for the third film in 2011. Even January 2014’s The Marked Ones managed $18.3 million before falling off a cliff. Still, this was made for loose change found in couch cushions, so it’s probably not going to end with the worst fate of this weekend’s crop of releases. A weekend of $7.9 million is not that great, though.

Steve Jobs

After a couple spectacular to above average weekends in limited release (and coming in 11th last weekend in just 60 theaters), Steve Jobs expands to nearly 2,500 theaters and takes in $2.4 million, giving it $5.1 million to date. More directly tied to the Jobs biography than the previous film about the Apple visionary from 2013, it’s potentially hurt by the movie not only pointing out that Jobs was kind of a jerk, but also the idea that we’ve seen this already, even though the Ashton Kutcher version was kind of a flop, opening to just $6.7 million and finishing with $16.1 million. Despite very good reviews, especially for Michael Fassbender’s performance, the strong per screen averages did not keep up. Look for a weekend of $7.2 million.


Rock the Kasbah

It’s been a pretty lousy week for Bill Murray. First the Cubs get swept by the Mets in the NLCS (Mets over KC in five, by the way) and then Rock the Kasbah manages only $530,000 in about 2,000 theaters. Sharif don’t like it, and neither do audiences, so let’s go with a weekend of $1.4 million.

Jem and the Holograms

An internet punchline from the moment it was announced and then again when the trailer was released, Jem and the Holograms earns $458,000 in 2,400 theaters. That is truly, truly, truly…terrible. Weirdly, it’s the best reviewed film of the four new releases, yet only 21% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes, which sums up this weekend for you right there. Call it $1 million and a ridiculous cult following in five years.

Notable Holdovers

The general failure of all the new films sends The Martian back to the top spot on Friday, down just 32% from last week to $4.3 million, as it passes the $150 million mark. A fourth weekend of $14.5 million is very good and enough to win the weekend.

Meanwhile GERSBERMS Goosebumps holds moderately well in its second Friday with $3.9 million, off 46% from its opening. It played very well on Saturday last weekend and should do the exact same thing here, so look for a second weekend of $12.7 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Martian 14.5
2 Goosebumps 12.7
3 The Last Witch Hunter 10.2
4 Bridge of Spies 9.5
5 Hotel Transylvania 2 8.3
6 Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension 7.9
7 Steve Jobs 7.2
8 Crimson Peak 4.9
9 The Intern 3.6
10 Woodlawn 2.5



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