Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

July 29, 2015

If you weren't sold on Southpaw before, I'll bet you are now.

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Kim Hollis: Considering that this movie looked absolutely terrible (and that you basically see the entire story in its entirety in the trailer), I think this is a pretty incredible opening. Although Gyllenhaal can generally be relied upon to pick solid scripts, he’s not a huge draw. I think we can credit this debut to his recent quality projects and a gritty trailer that I suppose appeals to people who like that sort of thing (assuming they don’t care that they know exactly what’s going to happen through every beat of the movie).

David Mumpower: I agree that the movie looked terrible. I mean, I would go get snacks when it came on, because I hated everything about the concept and it feels like an especially long ad. So, I'm squarely in the camp that it's done more than it had any right to do. Given the budget, Southpaw is solidly in the hit category, which makes me hate about two million ticket purchases last weekend. Don't be part of the problem, people!

Ryan Kyle: This is a very good result and in line with the opening of Cinderella Man, another boxing movie that opened during the summer starring a well-regarded lead meant to spark Oscar conversation. Steady holds should be in store and an equal $60 million-range finish is totally possible given the high A-Cinemascore (showing that audiences are lapping up the film much more so than critics). Made for an economical $30 million, the A-list cast should help sell the movie overseas as well.




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Kim Hollis: Paper Towns, the latest adaptation of a John Green novel, earned $12.7 million this weekend. What do you think about this performance?

Ben Gruchow: This is a tough one to call, because it's easily the least-lively of this weekend's openers. The difference in multiplier between Paper Towns (1.98) and either Pixels (2.63) or Southpaw (2.66) is startling, although relatively par for the course for a teen romance, and you could really say that either this was the movie affected least by the Thursday shooting (because it absolutely cratered after what was an okay Friday) or most (because the combination of the shooting and a mild rush factor wiped it off the face of the earth as a factor).

Either way, this is not a terrible opening; the movie only cost $12 million, and marketing wasn't very obtrusive, so it shouldn't have the biggest uphill battle to profitability. Still, on the strength of the multiplier alone, I think this may struggle to get to $25 million; the $50.4 million of If I Stay is almost certainly out of the question, barring a miracle. Heck, the relatively disappointing $31 million of last year's Endless Love is a long shot. Paper Towns went from "mildly promising" to "destined for obscurity after two more weekends.” It's not a good movie, so I can't say I'm exactly heartbroken. But still.

Edwin Davies: I don't think this is terrible given that the film has covered its production budget and should have a relatively healthy life on home media, but it's a real knock against the idea that John Green is the next Nicholas Sparks. While his audience certainly is interested in seeing adaptations of the books they love, it looks like The Fault in Our Stars was a phenomenon unto itself, rather than indicative of a new power player in YA movies.


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