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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 25, 2015

Wait a second! I know that monkey! His name is Donkey!

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Pixels

With an underwhelming $9.2 million, Adam Sandler’s Pixels leads a weaker-than-expected Friday at the box office. Despite the critical evisceration, the germ of a good idea and the mild nostalgia kick were just enough to best Ant-Man for the lead, but it’s going to be close for the weekend crown. Clearly trying to position itself as something children of the '80s can take their kids to, that’s not quite going to do the trick. A weekend of $25.1 million is it’s best chance.

Paper Towns

A year after The Fault In Our Stars earned nearly $50 million out of nowhere, Paper Towns is trying to recreate that magic, albeit to a slightly lesser degree. Based on another young adult novel by John Green, Paper Towns disappoints with just $6.3 million on Friday, a large step back from the $26 million The Fault In Our Stars took in on its first day. What also fueled The Fault In Our Stars was a tremendous Thursday night showing, complete with live Q&A with the film’s stars and Green himself. Paper Towns actually beat Pixels in Thursday night box office, but the gap will widen further over the rest of the weekend. Don’t feel too bad, though; Paper Towns only cost $12 million to make, a figure it will make back by the end of the weekend. Give it a weekend of $15.7 million.




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Southpaw

A mild surprise on Friday, Jake Gyllenhaal’s Southpaw comes in with $6.2 million. The best choice out there for adults who don’t want to see Ant-Man, the drama overcame middling reviews to provide some decent counter programming on a box office currently heavily skewed towards younger audiences. It’ll pass Paper Towns for the weekend as well, which is certainly an upset. A weekend of $17.6 million is pretty solid for Southpaw.

Ant-Man

Despite Pixels underperforming, Ant-Man drops a larger than expected 68% from last Friday to $7.2 million, and suddenly finds itself in a race for a second weekend on top. Pixels has a large enough Friday lead that it would take a huge recovery over the rest of the weekend in order for Ant-Man to retain the weekend crown. That, and the type of weekend decline usually reserved for horror movies don’t bode well for the Marvel film. Look for a second weekend of $22.3 million for Ant-Man.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Pixels 25.1
2 Ant-Man 22.3
3 Minions 22.1
4 Southpaw 17.6
5 Paper Towns 15.7
6 Trainwreck 14.7
7 Inside Out 7.1
8 Jurassic World 7.0
9 Mr. Holmes 2.9
10 Magic Mike XXL 1.8

     


 
 

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