Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

July 21, 2015

No worse than Aquaman, really.

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Max Braden: I think that's a solid opening everyone should be happy with. Not every MCU movie is going to open as big as your big hitters like Iron Man, Cap, or The Avengers just because it's a Marvel property. I think by all rights anything outside the handful of iconic comic book characters should open in the mid-20s. Plus, consider that Paul Rudd has been acting for 20 years now (Clueless was released July 21, 1995) and for most of that time he's been stuck in the “nice guy but not leading man” category. As a co-lead his best opening was in 2010 with $23 million for playing the straight man to Steve Carrell in Dinner for Schmucks. Obviously, the Marvel factor was key to a large opening, but everything I'm reading about the movie is saying Rudd was the right casting for the movie. I think this is a win-win all around.

Jason Barney: It isn't a sizzling start....but it was never supposed to be. Ant-Man doing well enough this weekend is another nod to the product line Marvel is saturating the market with. Ant-Man, a totally unknown comic book character with no sparkle, history, or pedigree just won the weekend with a good opening.

John Hamann's global $400 million number is pretty close to the mark with respect to what Ant-Man will need to do to make a profit, and it is already 25% of the way there. Admittedly the easiest money is in the first couple of weekends, but I would imagine the expansion overseas will take some time. The point is, Marvel just opened a total unknown property and when all is said and done they will make another profit from it.




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Ryan Kyle: This is a fine start. It opened within spitting distance of the first Thor and Captain America, which is quite remarkable given that Ant-Man definitely doesn't come close to the name level recognition those two iconic heroes do, even before the whole Avengers line-up happened. Ant-Man didn't hit Guardians levels, because let's be honest, it never looked like that hot of a film as the more zany-Guardians did. Also, Guardians was bridging the gap between the first and second Avengers movie. Now that we've all seen Ultron rise, the fever pitch is gone. Assuming the film has normal legs, $175 million should be the total cume, which ranks fairly well within the Marvel film properties.

David Mumpower: I believe Ant-Man represents the purest demonstration of the Marvel brand. It's a laughable concept that BOP's been mocking for at least a decade. That's how long the Ant-Man rumors have existed, and it's stood as an absurd concept the whole time. Edgar Wright was the perfect choice as director, and it broke my heart that Marvel dumped him in order to make the film straight rather than silly.

Despite all the knocks on it, Ant-Man opened strong on Thursday and held relatively well through the weekend. I disagree with the notion that it'll have great legs, as its numbers since Friday indicate some frontloading. Simply because it's Marvel and they skew young isn't enough to expect legs. While the reviews and Cinemascore are also positives, I suspect that Disney has enticed all the loyalists already. From now on, it's going to be trickier to get people to look past the concept.

Keeping all the above in mind, I think this opening is spectacular. Occam's Razor applies here. FREAKING ANT-MAN just opened north of $50 million. It opened higher than The Incredible Hulk, a known character with a more action-packed concept. No, it's not as good as other Marvel properties since the MCU's debut, but relative to what they had to work with, this is an amazing achievement.


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