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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 18, 2015

Evangeline Lilly isn't buying into this Ant-Man thing at all.

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Ant-Man

Marvel’s latest superhero entry shows that anything with their name on it can open strong. It’s a $22.4 million Friday for Ant-Man, which is pretty good for what, like it or not, is a B-team character. This figure also handily wins Friday, but more on that in a moment. For weekend comparisons, this is just a couple million under both the first Captain America ($25.7 million) and the first Thor movies ($25.4 million), both released in 2011.

If Ant-Man follows the same pattern as those Marvel properties over the balance of the weekend, and there’s really little reason to see why it wouldn’t, that would give the Paul Rudd movie a $57.1 million weekend.




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Trainwreck

Amy Schumer’s Trainwreck gets off to a decent start with $10.6 million on Friday. The raunchy R-rated romantic comedy is getting very strong reviews, and I’m reminded of 2011’s Bridesmaids for another female lead hard R comedy. That started with $7.8 million before finishing with $26.2 million in its opening weekend. A similar 3.35 weekend multiplier probably isn’t in the cards, but a weekend of around $31.8 is still a great number in a summer that’s been tough on comedy.

Minions

Last weekend’s big winner, Minions, drops 65% from last weekend to $14.5 million. This was generally to be expected after the mammoth opening, and Ant-Man has a sizable lead for the weekend title over the Despicable Me spinoff. That’s just a big enough gap that while Minions will make it close, Ant-Man has a clear path to winning the weekend. Look for Minions to bring in a second weekend of $50.7 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Ant-Man 57.1
2 Minions 50.7
3 Trainwreck 31.8
4 Jurassic World 10.7
5 Inside Out 10.6
6 Terminator: Genisys 5.1
7 Magic Mike XXL 4.2
8 The Gallows 3.7
9 Ted 2 2.3
10 Bajrangi Bhaijaan 2.2

     


 
 

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