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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 27, 2015

Mmm... smores.

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Inside Out

It’s a bit of a logjam at the top of the box office this week, with the top three separated by less than $2 million. Just like last Friday, Pixar’s Inside Out wins Friday with $15 million, off 55% from opening day. This is just fine and kind of par for the course for Pixar releases, as they tend to bring out a larger audience on opening weekend. It’s still going to be pushing $200 million by the end of the weekend. Based on recent historical multipliers for the second weekend on Pixar films, Inside Out will probably find itself in second place on the weekend again, this time with $48.7 million.

Jurassic World

After a record breaking second weekend of $106 million, it’s a third Friday drop of 50% and $14.6 million for Jurassic World. The stunning thing about last weekend was how it behaved like a family/children’s movie, with a 3.66 multiplier for the weekend, something generally unheard of when you deal with numbers of this size. If it performed that well in the face of Inside Out last weekend, there’s no reason to not think the trend will continue, so Jurassic World wins its third straight weekend with a total of $52.5.




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Ted 2

In third place we finally have the first opening film, Seth MacFarlane’s Ted 2. With $13.2 million on Friday, that’s a considerable decrease from the $20.5 million earned by Ted on this weekend three years ago. That is…not good. Perhaps three years is too long between films, perhaps it’s just going to the well once too often and the concept isn’t original anymore, or maybe it’s just not as good as the first one. Either way, Ted 2 is in for a somewhat disappointing weekend of $34.2 million.

Max

Our last opener is the family friendly Max, with a slightly better than expected $4.3 million on Friday. Perhaps partially benefiting from the military aspect (it’s about a service dog returning home after his handler’s death, after all), Max manages to hold its own in the face of some heavyweights, with around $11 million on the weekend.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Jurassic World 52.5
2 Inside Out 48.7
3 Ted 2 34.2
4 Max 11.0
5 Spy 7.5
6 San Andreas 5.4
7 Dope 2.4
8 Avengers: Age of Ultron 1.7
9 Insidious: Chapter 3 1.8
10 Pitch Perfect 2 1.2

     


 
 

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