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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 13, 2015

Just wait until the documentary expose about treatment of the dinosaurs hits theaters.

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It’s a T-Rex sized $82.8 million Friday for Jurassic World. That includes $18.5 million earned Thursday night, but it’s still headed for a record breaking weekend. Jurassic World now owns the third biggest single day of box office of all time, behind Harry Potter 7.2’s $91 million and last month’s Avengers: Age of Ultron's $84.4 million. It’s guaranteed to obliterate the June opening weekend record, which belongs to 2013’s Man of Steel at $116.6 million. Jurassic World’s Friday earnings alone would actually place it in sixth place for the month.

Given all this, we now turn our attention to the highest opening weekends in box office history. Of course, the top two are the Avengers movies, at $207.4 million and $191.2 million respectively, with Iron Man 3 in third with a quaint $174.1 million. All three of these are most certainly in play for Jurassic World. When you take out the Thursday earnings, here’s where you get:

Iron Man 3 $68.3 million Friday, $15.6 million Thursday, $52.7 million Friday actual, $158.5 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.00 multiplier

Avengers: $80.5 million Friday, $18.7 million Thursday, $61.8 million Friday actual, $188.7 million weekend minus Thursday, 3.05 multiplier

Age of Ultron: $84.5 million Friday, $27.6 million Thursday, $65.8 million Friday actual, $163.6 million weekend minus Thursday, 2.48 multiplier

Jurassic World: $82.8 million Friday, $18.5 million Thursday, $64.3 million Friday actual, $???.? million weekend minus Thursday, ?.?? multiplier.




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Let’s run through the scenarios. If it matches Avengers or Iron Man 3, (and I’ll use a 3.0 for this example) that’s a new all-time opening weekend champion with $211.4 million. If it matches Age of Ultron, it’s “only” $177.9 million. I’m certainly leaning towards a multiplier closer to Avengers and Iron Man 3 rather than Age of Ultron. It helps that it’s skewing younger.

It’s going to be extremely close, but I think you are looking at the new opening weekend record here. This was always going to be a blockbuster, but it’s the timing that brings Jurassic World into the pantheon of box office openings. Jurassic Park was long enough ago that those who saw it as kids and were mesmerized by the “whoa, dinosaurs!” aspect of it are now old enough to have their own kids, and they are bringing those kids to Jurassic World. Star power is often overstated since there’s really a select few that can ever have a notable impact on box office, but it’s certainly looking like Chris Pratt has joined that group. Ladies and gentlemen, between Jurassic World and Guardians of the Galaxy, the pudgy, doofy guy from Parks and Recreation is now the biggest star in the world.

Also, Jurassic World’s opening brings box office records full circle in a way, as two of the previous three films in the Jurassic Park franchise also once held the record for the largest opening weekend. In fact, The Lost World held the record (at $72.1 million!) from May 1997 to November 2001. It’s almost fitting that it takes back the record once again. Jurassic World looks to come in with a weekend of $211 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Jurassic World 211.0
2 Spy 14.2
3 San Andreas 10.4
4 Insidious: Chapter 3 6.5
5 Pitch Perfect 2 5.5
6 Mad Max: Fury Road 4.0
7 Entourage 3.8
8 Tomorrowland 3.6
9 Avengers: Age of Ultron 3.4
10 Love and Mercy 1.5

     


 
 

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