Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 5, 2015

Seems like about 90% of the movie is this lady walking around with a lantern.

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Insidious: Chapter 3

The horror threequel is tops on Friday, barely, with $10.4 million. This is nearly half as much as Chapter 2 earned on its first day in September 2013 when it took in $20.2 million (which turned out to be almost a quarter of its total gross). So I feel secure in saying that it won’t win the weekend. It should do a little better than Chapter 2’s rather incredible 2.0 weekend multiplier, but the standard rules for a horror film still apply. A weekend of around $25 million is still a bunch of found money for Focus Features, since the prequel only cost $10 million to produce


Melissa McCarthy’s Spy comes in right behind Insidious with $10.3 million. With incredibly positive reviews (95% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes) and solid word-of-mouth from audiences, it might stand a chance of holding well for a couple of weekends before Ted 2 takes over. It’s going to have a better Saturday and Sunday than Insidious, which gives it the weekend crown before Jurassic World stomps all over everything next weekend. It’s a weekend of $30.6 million for Spy, which, while not the breakout that it seemed like it would be a few weeks ago, continues McCarthy’s solid box office streak.



The film adaptation of the HBO show started off with $5.3 million on Wednesday, but that was its high point as it earned $3.7 million on Friday after taking in $7.3 million in its first two days of release. Once again, a film with a somewhat limited audience squanders weekend headlines by shooting its wad with a Wednesday release. With about $10 million on the weekend (and thus, $17.3 million in five days), it looks like a considerable flop compared to the other two weekend releases.

San Andreas

After a huge opening weekend, The Rock’s San Andreas drops 58% from last Friday to $7.6 million. It certainly could’ve come in worse than that in the face of three new releases. Anyway, it’s going to be neck and neck with Insidious for second place on the weekend but I think the horror entry has just enough of a head start unless it comes in with a record low weekend multiplier like the last one did. Look for San Andreas to land a second weekend of $24.7 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Spy 30.6
2 Insidious: Chapter 2 24.9
3 San Andreas 24.7
4 Entourage 9.9
5 Mad Max: Fury Road 8.4
6 Tomorrowland 8.3
7 Pitch Perfect 2 8.0
8 The Avengers: Age of Ultron 7.1
9 Aloha 3.0
10 Poltergeist 2.6



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