Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 30, 2015

Earthquake face.

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San Andreass

An earthquake action movie starring The Rock and unfortunately not a Grand Theft Auto movie, the disaster porn that is San Andreas starts off with a solid $18.2 million on Friday. That’s quite good and ahead of most projections. If it follows the same trajectory as Mad Max: Fury Road did a couple of weekends ago, it’s looking at a weekend of $49.2 million. San Andreas does not quite have the glowing reviews that Mad Max did, so we’ll bump it down a notch and call it $47 million on the weekend, which is still a strong showing.



Cameron Crowe’s Aloha has a strong cast, featuring Bradley Cooper, Emma Stone and Rachel McAdams, but it lands with a relative thud at just $3.6 million on Friday. I’m optimistic over the rest of the weekend as it’s the most “adult” targeted film, provided the abysmal reviews don’t scare anyone off. It’ll be an afterthought in no time, but not before it manages $10 million on the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Last weekend’s openers do not fare well at all the second time around, as Tomorrowland drops 61% to $3.8 million and Poltergeist gets hammered by 72% to $2.6 million. While nobody should really be all that surprised by Poltergeist, Tomorrowland immediately becomes one of the bigger misfires of 2015, and $100 million is a stretch at this point. For the weekend, give Tomorrowland $12.8 million and Poltergeist $6.8 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 San Andreas 47.0
2 Pitch Perfect 2 14.3
3 Mad Max: Fury Road 13.1
4 Tomorrowland 12.8
5 Avengers: Age of Ultron 10.6
6 Aloha 10.0
7 Poltergeist 6.8
8 Far From the Madding Crowd 1.5
9 Hot Pursuit 1.2
10 Furious 7 1.0



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