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Weekend Forecast for May 29-31, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

May 29, 2015

Don't worry! Paul Giamatti will save you!

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In Aloha, Bradley Cooper stars as a military contractor who screws up in typical Crowian fashion, spurring him to return to his home base to regroup and recuperate while he gets his life together. In this case, as you may have guessed, this happens to be Hawaii, and it's also the location of one of his great past loves, played by Rachel McAdams. However, there's also the military attache assigned to him, played by Emma Stone, to consider. I wonder if his wallet is too small for his fifties and his diamond shoes are too tight.

Since his perhaps critical high water mark of Almost Famous, Crowe's films have become increasingly sentimental and less vital. Vanilla Sky marked the last time he tried something really new and certainly has its defenders, even if its ending turned a lot of people off. Elizabethtown was a close copy of Jerry Maguire, but Orlando Bloom is no Tom Cruise on a couple of levels, and the sameness of the storytelling didn't work a second time, while We Bought a Zoo saw him squander the potential of Matt Damon in a fairly saccharine story. You get the feeling we're probably not getting the Crowe of Say Anything or Singles back any time soon.

Cooper is of course riding a hot streak between the Hangover films, American Hustle, Guardians of the Galaxy and American Sniper, though none of those films really have anything to do with each other. That actually says really good things for Cooper's drawing power, though everything has its limits. Aloha lacks a specialness in its advertising, and ad support isn't what you'd expect for a film with a cast of this caliber. This is also exactly the kind of film that terrible reviews can sink, and I'd look for this to debut with just $8 million.

Coming in behind the weekend winner is a passel of May blockbusters of varying success. Tomorrowland was a significant disappointment as measured relative to excitement, opening to just $33 million over three days. I don't expect a rescue from word-of-mouth, and this should fall to just $17 million this weekend, headed to a final gross that might be under $100 million domestic.




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Pitch Perfect 2 fell over 50 percent in its second weekend thanks to front-loading and weak word-of-mouth, though at over $125 million in the bank, there's very little to complain about considering the film was made for the catering budget of other films. It should sit at around $14 million this weekend.

The closest thing to legs was the second weekend of Mad Max: Fury Road, which took in $24 million and pushed its total to over $100 million midweek. While not an entirely unexpected result, it's run up against some long odds to what is certainly an over $150 million final result, and perhaps up to $175 million. Bring on the Wasteland.

The Avengers: Age of Ultron crossed the $400 million mark over Memorial Day weekend with a $21 million performance and continues on its pace to around $475 million total domestically. Internationally, it's set to become the next member of the billion dollar club, which includes just three other films – Titanic, Avatar and Furious 7. Give it $12 million this weekend.

The remake of Poltergeist had a solid, considering, weekend of $22 million, but should have the typical horror film fate befall it, dropping to about $9 million this frame.


Forecast: Weekend of May 29-31, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 San Andreas 3,777 New 38.4
2 Tomorrowland 3,972 No change 17.0
3 Pitch Perfect 2 3,661 +101 14.1
4 Mad Max: Fury Road 3,255 -467 13.5
5 The Avengers: Age of Ultron 3,228 -499 12.2
6 Poltergeist 3,242 +2 9.3
7 Aloha 2,815 New 8.4
8 Hot Pursuit 1,446 -1,131 2.2
9 Far From the Madding Crowd 902 +37 2.0
10 Furious 7 959 -694 1.4

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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