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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 23, 2015

And thus a young woman was set on the tragic path of hoarding.

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Pitch Perfect 2

Despite a 65% decline from last Friday, Pitch Perfect 2 is in a virtual tie for first place on Friday with $9.7 million as we head into Memorial Day weekend. Given the front-loaded opening weekend and a somewhat muted reception from fans, the decline is not really surprising, but its huge lead from last weekend keeps it on top after a second Friday. It’s also about to cross $100 million in just nine days in theaters, which is just crazy considering the original earned $65 million. Look for a second weekend of $33 million and about $42 million over four days.

Tomorrowland

Also coming in with $9.7 million on Friday is new entry Tomorrowland, starring George Clooney. You can pretty much chalk this opening up to Clooney’s star power and the ambitious and intriguing premise that is not fully spelled out in just the previews. Despite middling reviews after the initial hype (remember how awesome that Super Bowl teaser seemed?), it’s the most family-friendly film out there and that’s something in its favor that probably gives it the edge over Pitch Perfect 2 for the weekend title, but it’s going to be pretty close. Tomorrowland will take the weekend with $34 million over three days and about $43 million over the full holiday weekend.




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Poltergeist

Close behind Tomorrowland and Pitch Perfect 2 is the other weekend opener, horror remake Poltergeist comes in strong with a much better than expected $9.3 million on Friday. 2015 has been pretty light on horror and Poltergeist is your highest profile release so far, so there you go. I’d expect it to trail off quickly, but not before a weekend of $28 million and $38 million over four days.

Mad Max: Fury Road

Still the best reviewed film of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road drops a disappointing 60% from last Friday to $6.7 million. I was initially hopeful that word-of-mouth would carry it to eventually earn more than Pitch Perfect despite its opening weekend head start, but that is not to be. Still, see this movie. I don’t say that often, but do it. The best Fury Road is looking at is a weekend of $23 million and then $26 million over four days.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Tomorrowland 34.0
2 Pitch Perfect 2 33.0
3 Poltergeist 28.0
4 Mad Max: Fury Road 23.0
5 Avengers: Age of Ultron 20.0
6 Hot Pursuit 3.0
7 Far From the Madding Crowd 2.1
8 Furious 7 1.8
9 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 1.6
10 The Age of Adeline 1.2

     


 
 

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