Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
May 7, 2015
Kim Hollis: Do you believe that the Marvel universe has peaked at the box office or do you think Civil War and Avengers Infinity War will regain momentum for the franchise?
Jason Barney: I think there are miles of distinction between peaking at the box office and "regaining" momentum for the franchise. Let's keep things in perspective. The assertion that the franchise has taken a step back is a very specific nit-pick. It just did better than every other film that has been released but one. I think the franchise's momentum is strong.
Another point that I would like to make is about the potential future of this film, what it is going to do over the next several weeks. It will be compared to the original, rightly so. Taking those outstanding numbers into account….those only achieved once numbers is just fine with me. In the Monday to Thursday portion of Avengers first week three years ago, it averaged $15 million each day. We should see similar business here. That means on the low end, Age of Ultron will be approaching $230 million or so going into weekend two. Let’s assume a greater than 50% drop next weekend…give it just $85 million in frame two. Ah, okay… does that make the point?
And over the course of Ultron’s time in theaters, I think the discussion is moot as to whether it matches the original domestically. It will or it won’t. The numbers will still be massive. I think the real story will be Age of Ultron’s expansion of the product overseas. That is the real growth market.
Huge. Absolutely Huge.
Edwin Davies: Domestically? Yes. The Avengers was the absolute peak, because it was this special thing that no one had ever seen before, and so all these superhero crossovers to come will just be attempts to recreate a lightning in a bottle moment. That doesn't mean that the franchise as a whole is in decline, though. I'd expect to see the third Captain America movie do better than the second one, possibly even cracking the $300 million bar domestically, and for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 to be massive when it hits theaters in 2017. I'm not sure if any of the films in Phase Three will become phenomenons in the way that The Avengers did, but Marvel has created an ecosystem for themselves in which all their films support and bolster each other, and the audience loyalty and goodwill from the last seven years is going to go a long way to ensuring that their slate of future films do pretty well.
Internationally, these films will continue to grow and grow.
Felix Quinonez: I totally agree with Jason. The original Avengers will most likely be the high mark (domestically) but the franchise is in perfectly good shape. It doesn't need to break the box office records every time to be considered a success.
Kim Hollis: I'm wondering if they've peaked, myself. Ant-Man and other lesser characters have the potential to damage the Marvel brand (although to be fair, I would have said the same thing about Guardians of the Galaxy). I really wonder how much the audience is going to enjoy the Civil War storyline that will evolve with Captain America. Given that Iron Man is (and should be) an audience favorite, the direction his character goes is not one that people are going to like. I think we saw signs that the story is headed that way in Age of Ultron, so it will be very interesting to see audience response to Captain America 3.