Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 28, 2015
Kim Hollis: Age of Adaline, a romance featuring Blake Lively, debuted with $13.2 million this weekend. What do you think of this result?
Edwin Davies: This is perfectly fine, and a little better than I would have expected since I had no idea what this film was about or when it was coming out. Blake Lively isn't much of a known quantity when it comes to film, so this could be a stepping stone for her to bigger things, or it could just be the result of people thinking they have should see something this weekend and being out of options. In any case, I think we can all agree that this film came out and that it does exist.
Matthew Huntley: This is a fair opening, but I think it will be a longer rather than shorter while before Age of Adaline finds itself in the black. It cost approximately $25 million to make and probably another $40-$50 million to market; plus, don't think its international appeal will be all that high. With that being said, its profitability attainment isn't impossible, just far out, and, who knows, maybe it will show decent enough legs to get to $40 million stateside, which would be more than respectable.
Felix Quinonez: I think this is a perfectly good opening and should be considered a win for Blake Lively. It could hold up okay as counter-programming next week against Age of Ultron and see a small profit before it's all done.
Jason Barney: I have mixed feelings about this result. On the one hand, against the budget this opening is workable. If the budget was somewhere in that $25 million dollar range, it will surpass that sometime next weekend. A $13 million opening is not spectacular, nor is opening in third place.
However, traditionally the last weekend of April, before the start of all the summer movie season action, is a dumping ground for films that studios no longer have faith in. It used to be this weekend was very much like the very end of the summer movie season. Like a dart board, just throw it out there and see what happens. You have to wonder if this actually does turn out to be decent counter programing next week against the superheroes.
If it does, and its holds over the next couple of weekends are even the least bit surprising, it will substantially eat into whatever marketing costs were spent.
Ryan Kyle: I have to disagree with the above comments. I think this is a great opening for multiple reasons. First, Adaline surpassed the entire gross of Mortdecai, the other Lionsgate release in January that swapped calendar spots with this film. Secondly, almost all dramatic romance films are based off of an existing property. While it might look as if it belongs in the Nicholas Sparks' cannon, Adaline is an entirely original idea that opened higher than the last two Sparks movies, including the now three-weekend old Longest Ride. Thirdly, unlike Longest Ride and other recent romance flicks, Adaline didn't decline on Saturday from Friday's date night rush, but actually rose 8% on its second day in release. This bodes well for its future potential. While Avengers will hurt everything next weekend from stealing audiences and screens away, Adaline should be one of the least affected. While I doubt a Notebook-esque run will happen for this film because it won't have the high summer weekday grosses, I could see long legs walking this film to the $40-50 million range. However, TV and Netflix is where Adaline will really thrive.
Michael Lynderey: Blake Lively actually hasn't appeared in a film since Oliver Stone's Savages in 2012, so I think it's pretty impressive that she can carry this one to a box office run that likely won't be too far from the Stone film (which finished with $47 million). The script for Adaline has kicked around for a few years now (Katherine Heigl was attached back in the day, and then, almost, Natalie Portman), and it's good to see that they finally got this original idea out there and kicking. I don't know if it was ever meant to be a blockbuster, but it'll play well as the only female-aimed film until Hot Pursuit gets here in two weeks.